Transcripts For WHO Mad Money 20160109 : vimarsana.com

WHO Mad Money January 9, 2016

Were dealing with right now. You think that this market would have been able to go higher with china being able to mount a pretty big bountiful job gains this month. But if you thoughts that, you would be wrong. First the Chinese Government propped up to the market last night with all sorts of buying, it wasnt real people. Terrific that it didnt go down. We all know the drill, the communist party is making it up as you go along. The massive rally in 2014, when the shanghai was at 2100. In may of last year when it climbed to 5200. Made no sense whatsoever, it was just people throwing money at it, and while the Chinese Market has managed to come down from 4300 to 3200 the currently level. The sheer number of people who instituted Circuit Breakers earlier this week while devaluing its currency, it got rid of the Circuit Breakers because it has no idea what its doing. I think the shanghai market would is have at least started the process of roundtriping back to where the bubble started. We should be facing another 30 drop. Which is exactly what we used to do when the government encouraged opening accounts and people opened five accounts and borrowed money to put in the accounts. Specifically, its a phony market. We have lost all confidence in the chinese economys ability to run either their stock exchanges or for that matter, their economy. And that loss of faith is translating into genuine fear of growth. There will be fed officials galore talking up the need for rate hikes later this year given the strong employment numbers. If they look for raw material inflation, the longer Oil Situation has kept them at bay. But any good news in the employment front is bad news for the consumer, who will have to get used to paying higher interest rates. Its no wonder that so people believe that autos are peaking, thats the sector that leads in rates. Dont forget about the housing stocks again, something that is again directly related to the coming rise in mortgage rates, it all makes sense when you hear about the feds hawkishness. These are governors, they come on tv, they love to talk. I wouldnt let any of them talk if i was that chairwoman yelling, the chinese stock market because its propped up by the government and the u. S. Inflation is one the feds feel should be slowed by higher rates. Are they against the working person making a little bit of money here . Who in their right mind wants to buy stocks on those two meeses of news. But one things thats been totally lost in the shuffle is earnings. Specifically the ones that we got from constellation, and from walgreens boots aleans. The market simply wasnt focused on how individual companies were doing, just companies. That could change when earnings season begins, but china and the fed, and the endlessly declining price approximate in oil, more on that later in the show, and control, all three are negatives that could trump anything im about to show you, first out of the gate, as always, its alcoa, the company is splitting itself up into two entities, a pure and a company that modernizes the making of aluminum for a variety of Industries Like aerospace, gas turbines. In order to create a new Commodity Company that represents a basket breed energy in the sector. A close win in indiana yesterday, but its the other site of the business, the hightech one that im interested in. This is only the real look at the Company Since the breakup proposal. And klein is going to have to trim expectations for limited use, because of a faltering china and weakness in the emeshlging markets. I think alcoa stock all the way down to 8 as gotten a little lower versus some of the parts here. And tuesday, we hear from csx. This is another company that can give us a read on everything from coal production, auto parts, agriculture, oil. The Railroad Stocks have been pacific, not a great stock. The rail business has been so dismal. One of my favorite names one monster beverage, the energies drink company, its also a favorite of the cocacola company, and also opened this business, distribution network. Its going to be pretty darn good. They had a nice story about european sales. Not to mention now sales of convenience stores, worth your speculating on, one of the last bastions of domestic stocks that has held up well. But dont tell that to the people who own supervalue, which is a month ago, i mean about a year ago, it was at 12, its at 6 now. Lets see what they have to say. But all a in all, if they say bad things, go by kroger or thursday we hear from jpmorgan and i got the tell you, the banks have been roaring going into the new year, investors kpt the fed to continue raising the rates which boosts how much money they can make on your money. But many feds say they cant keep raising the rates because the economy cant bear it. Jpmorgan has been so are these Bank Stocks Going to tank as they did this past week . I would say yeah, all right . They go lower. Why didnt they get into too much negativity. After the close, well get the skinny from intel. Ill point that out because for so long it was a negative. For all the Semiconductor Properties that sell into the market. I bet they tell a good story about the the ship make theyre will help intel diversify, hey, 3 kbreeld, wells fargo, citigroup, pnc or u. S. One. The charts are broken down, the sectors become hated as it was once loved when the fed was expected to be tightening. Like i told you, the market has turned on to the financials. Citigroup stock for example has broken down to levels not seen since early 2014. Morgan stanley, they didnt talk about it. But its stock has given up all its gains since 2014. These people are at standing declines, and i dont think theyre done. So to the bottom line is, with chinas strong employment like we got this morning, we are fighting both the fed and world events, if we just sit there and buy stocks without waiting for further weakness. I was hoping for a worse bottom today, we didnt get it. Until we see a real crescendo of capitulation, i say we have to be willing to take some pain now if you cant take the gain, and you got some profits, i dont mind you taking them at all. A shoultout to your colleagues, the brilliant market analyst lenore hawkins. Despite the fed raising rates, but with a rising Dividend Rate up to 3. 4 , should i defend lazar at 16 down . I do not like the financials. I have had to take that stance because were now in the position where the fed may not be able to raise rates and the economy may be softening, and thats not good for any bank, including an Investment Bank. How about nick in ohio . Nick . My question is for pep boys and manny mo. They sent a tender offer for my withdrew it. I want you just to sell pep boys. Its a at 18, it was at 9 before that. Heres what you do, sell, sell, sell. We ended one of the worst weeks in history with just a pathetic parody of what a market should look like, that last hour was awful, but remember, why is this . Were fighting world events and the fed. So wait for more weakness before you pull the trigger. Thats the profit . The market might have lost more than 1,000 point this is week, but the dow has always been closely followed. So when an index kicks a stock to the can curb, is it time to sell . This statement might be a surprise, if you think the biggest problem with china is its stock market, youre dead wrong. And theres one guy who called the decline the oil the whole way, youre not going to want to miss that. So stick with cramer. Dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer. Send jim an email to madmoney they performed much better as they performed much better as long as they were no longer part last year, exiled was att. Back in 2013, alcoa was tossed out. The year before that, the dow kicked out the old craft in order to make room for united health. In twooirn, citigroup was replaced basis coe, while General Motors right when the financial crisis started to go crazy in 2008, the dow jones average decided to cult aig loose, replaced by kraft. And honey well got booted so the dow could bring in chevron. You might think that a stock would get crushed after forcibly being kicked out of the Dow Jones Industrial average. Lets go through the ten to bes that dnlts even make the cut. The stray dogs of the dow. And see what has been released into the wild. Its pretty instructive. Certainly not what i thought of when we started going this piece. Att was up 3. 5 , in the year leading up to its rule. While its essentially flat in the ten months since being cut loose, when you consider that the dows come down more than 9 over the same period, atts flat performance starts to look pretty good. Alcoa fell nearly 11 the year before it got removed from the index, and its down 2 since being kicked out in 2013. Bank of america got kicked out statement and its suddenly up 6 . When you look at the value of the components, its up nearly 14 since being kicked to the curb. Near the end of 2012, kraft got expelled. After getting the boot. General motors aig are special situations since the former actually went bankrupt and the latter received the most bail in history. These two were terminated with cause. Finally the last two dow jones expatriots, honeywell who were tossed out in 2008, they have rallied 99 and 74 respectively. You got to buy them when they get the boot. With the exception of aig the last companies gotten thrown out of the Dow Jones Industrial average, have actually done quite well. The new additions to the dow have naturally outperformed the its the losers who were kicked out, that have tended to thats insane. You would expect the new additions to trounce the removals since the gate keepers in the dow are trying to bring the best to high Cap Companies they can find. On average, three years after being expelled, theyre outperforming those who replaced them. Maybe you should buy them. How could a removal from the most watched index in the world could be a blessing more than a curse . Once a stock gets kicked out of the Dow Jones Industrials, its no longer going to be a victim of dow futures, dow futures trader who is dont care about individual companies and just want to bet on the direction of the index. Once youre free of the dow, youre no longer going to be affected by waves of index sun selling which can overwhelm an individual stock. The index fund factor is huge, while i would never recommend a remember, you want the broader diversification that comes from there the we did a lot of wok on this, how important is the index fund factor . Roughly a year ago, indexed funds have managed more than 2. 1 trillion. Even if you just dont have enough money to go and buy a diversified portfolio of your own. When theres this much cash in indexed funds, that means the whole if a stock is on both the dow and the s p 500, its fate is very much in the hands of the futures traders. So being kicked out of the dow is kind of a liberating experience. Investors can focus on the actual fundamentals. Generally speaking if you wait a out of the dow, generally you would have made money if you buy that stock and hold on to it for the next 12 months. Despite what you might think, getting expelled from the Dow Jones Industrial average is no longer a market there are real benefits to no longer being part of the most visible index on earth. So the next time the dows gate keepers decide to adjust this index, watch who gets kicked out to see if you might have a terrific buying opportunity. More mad money ahead, im taking stocks and markets out of the equation. Were looking at the actual slowing impact of a chinese economy to the rest of the world. Where she stops nobody knows, ive got one of the only guys who called this whole decline youre not going to want to miss what he tells me next. And it was one of the only companies in the green this week, it helps turn ideas into life saving drugs, i got an exclusive with to the ceo. Why dont you stick with cramer. Y, you forgot the milk thats lactaid. Right. 100 real milk, just without the lactose. So you can drink all you want. With no discomfort . Exactly. Here, try some. Mmm, it is real milk. See . Delicious. Hoof bump oh. Right here girl, boom lactaid. 100 real milk. No discomfort politely wait, wait, wait you cant put it in like that. You have to rinse it first. Whats that, alfredo . No, that can go in. No it cant what are you, nuts . Thats bakedon alfredo. Bakedon . Its never gonna work. Dish issues . Trust your dishwasher with cascade platinum. It powers. Through. Your toughest stuckon food. Better than finish. to the hostess see, told you it would work. turns to girl 2 you heard me say that, right . Cascade. The tougher toughfood cleaner. Theres a more enjoyable way to get your fiber. Try phillips fiber good gummies plus energy support. Its a new fiber supplement that helps support regularity and includes b vitamins to help convert food to energy. Mmmmm, these are good nice work, phillips the tasty side of fiber, we get a gang that couldnt shoot straight or trade straight when it comes to putting money to work. They arent as clueless as our authorities were in 1929. Before we realized that portfolio insurers could drive an entire market out. That was the actual cause of the 87 crash. At the same time, to the Chinese Government is exhibiting fear and loathing in dealing with the bubble of their own creation. Similar to the Investment Bank bomb, which sucked in as many investors per capita as china has. This is when we realized that the communist party doesnt know what theyre doing, and theyre just making it up as they go along. The partys perceived this week. But thats only chinas stock market were talking about. Its the real economy in china thats taking its toll globally and has more of a chance of hurting us here. I watched the Baltic Trading index. It eshows endlessly declining demand. Its repeated rumbling that the government is doing some kind of stimulus. I should rent one of those ships and throw a Wedding Party or something on them. If the communist party is really stimulating, theyre doing a terrible job of it. And thats the real rub. In a world of marginal growth, now they seem to have turned seller, dumping everything from aluminum to steel on the world markets, the problem here is that unlike the u. S. , china has markets to sell goods, particularly natural resources. Without that chinese demand, we have too much of everything involved in the basic Building Blocks of consumer construction, namely the metals and Mining Equipment that drives consumption. You lose china, that means youve lost Global Growth and emerging growth. Thats the real impacts on the worlds economy and the ripple effects are indeed being felt in the u. S. , particularly u. S. Companies that export goods overseas. Is caterpillar really crushed by china . As my friend alex blanton points out to me. Cat pillar chinas lack of demand reverberates to its mineral and mining business throughout the world. Right now, not only are capital but basicallied on to the announcement last night from sirius logic, its good the analyst made it for cell phones has peaked too. That could be from china, or it could be from people who sell goods into china, but youre now being crushed by the lack of chinese demand. Forbes used reliance on can again be traced right back to the capital goods market in china. Im not saying we have lost china. I am saying that the real worries about china dont have as purchase to do with the stocks market as you might think, which is not particularly tied to the commodity markets. Its heavily weighted towards financials, not cappal tall goods or consumer the weakness of the stock market is less about the real economy and more about a reflection of the governments lack of transparency. So heres the bottom line, the growing, but its no longer responsible for the demand needed to gobble up the goods of other countries which have historically relied on chinas endalless growth for years, and that, not the ridiculous, immature and embarrassing handling of the stock market is the real problem, in a world yes theres just not enough growth, china is a massive problem, and its one that seems to be getting worse not better, as the months drag on. Lets speak to jeddah in illinois. Jeddah. I love you and i agree with larry can kudlow that you are the smartest man on wall street. Thank you. Im calling to ask for clarity on ge stock trades. I was thinking of buying more because of the recent 1 billion turbine sale to saudi arabia, their cash reserves and their liquidation of many of their capital reserve assets. However to buy anything. I dont really care for the market. Im constructively negative, as i tell my staff. Meaning that let the stocks come n we all feel the pain, were all resigned to it. If i thought i could get you in and out of ge 28 to 26, or 28. 5, but thats not what my viewers want, thats not what you want. I think you have to hold off until the stock goes lower. I think it probably stops at 23, 25. But i dont want you to put risk capital at work. Let stocks come this, its okay, its not a sin. Ed in michigan . I have got 1,000 shares the shares were issued at 9 and fiat is down to 8 today, i was hold or restock. I dont like the auto stocks, the ones that i do like, i do like fiat. I didnt when the ferrari deal, i didnt want anyone in that, i thought that was a really bad deal. All that said, i think it goes lower. Will it go from 7 to 5 . If it does, i would hold on to it. It might come back from there. Its down, its cut this half, less risk than if it hadnt been. Anyway, china is the stock marnlt, that isnt the real problem. To the real problem is their economy. Its not what it used to be. Its not sucking up all those goods from around the world and sadly, its getting worse not better. Much more mad money ahead. Hes one of the only guys that got energy right and hes joining me tonight. Youre not going to want to miss that interview. Ill see if he can can keep the games alive in an uncertain market. Its one of the few stocks thats rallying here. And a friday edition of the cramer. So how ya doing . Enough pressure in here for ya . Ugh. My sinuses are killing me. Yeah. Just wait til we hit ten thousand feet. Im gonna take Mucinex Sinusmax. Too late, were about to take off. These dissolve fast. Theyre new

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