Out a missile strike but still vestigating whether there could have been a bomb on board. Flying high. Why former boy band start nicola shay stands to make millions if ohio voters legalize marijuana today, that is, if another measure boonlt doesnt kill his buzz. And hello record books. Hello from the other side thats adeles new single. She is crushing it. More downloads in its first week than any other song in history. And the countdown to her appearance in our studio is already on today, tuesday, november 3rd, 2015. Announcer from nbc news, this is today with matt lauer and Savannah Guthrie live from studio 1a in rockefeller plaza. And good morning, everybody. Welcome to today on a tuesday rning. November 3rd, shes coming on november 25th, yes. Yeah. Sitting here, just wait. A lot of people into that song around youve been singing all morning. I think some would agree, youre kind of crushing it already, not in the same way though. Well wait for adele. Well let her sing that one. Absolutely. Our days top story, one year to go to the 2016 president ial election and the new poll has ben carson and Hillary Clinton suing and president obama is weighing in on the way. Well get to the lester holts clusive interview with the president in a moment, but well start in washington with nbc National CorrespondentPeter Alexander. Peter, good morning to you. Reporter hey, savannah, good morning to you. This race is now just getting good. The big headline this morning, that ben carson has shot up seven points in less than two weeks. That drops donald trump to second. 50 of republicansick carson as either their first or second oice, and while the depth of that support is yet to be tested, hes already proven to be a force in this field. Dr. Ben carson signing books and opponents shaking their heads. Our brand new nbc news wall street journal poll shows carson surging into the lead among gop primary voters at 29 , the highest number foa any republican so far this season, since points ahead of donald trump. Carson support strongest among evangelical and female voters, even more if the former neurosurgeon is the nominee, 77 of republicans sayrehey could see themselves supporting him. Just 60 for trump. I continue to do what ive been doing and that is to tell jethe truth and talklabout the issues that are important to the people. Reporter still, trump is la shing out at another wouldbe rival, freshman senator marco rubio whose delk,e performances vaulted him into third place, ffboth nationally and in the crysiiical early primary state of w hampshire. I think hes an overrated person. I dont think hes going to make it. Reporter w en asked, trump also dismissed rubio as a po tential running mate and is following jeb bushs lead criticizing rubios poor Senate Attendance records. He doesnt do things that youre supposed to do. Reporter bush remains sagging in Single Digits in fifth place promising a political reset. I can fix it. Reporter and giving a glimpse into all the advice hes geheing to pick up his game. Ditch the glasses, get rid of the purple striped tie. I like this tie. It only cost 20 bucks. Reporter meanwhile, the Republicans United front pushing to change upcoming debate format formats is already fraying with donald trump insistingt. Ell negotiate with tv networks alone and john kasich and Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina wont gn on to any letter demanding changes and the president mocking them last night. And then it turns out they cant handle a bunch of cnbc moderators at the debate. If you cant handle those guys, chinese and the russians are going to be too worried about you. Reporter a couple more items about our poll. For all his support donald trump also remains the most unpopular political figure in that poll. 56 of americans say they have a nega a ve view ofehim, but this is portyoant. When asked who has the best chance in the general election, ump still leads all republicans. Matt and savannah. All right. Peter alexander, thank you so much. Lets take a look at demo atic side now. Ourouew poll Shows Hillary inn pulling away. Nbcs kristen wel r is in iowa where secretary clinton is campaigning today. Krsisten, good morning to you. Reporter matt, good morning to you. Secretary clinton has two town halls here in iowa today, and it does come as our new poll shows she is increasing her lead over her top challenge over vermont senator Bernie Sanders. Lets take a look at numbers. According to our latest poll, secretary clinton now leads sanders by 31 points. Thats up from her 25point lead in october, but its not all good news. She still struggles with the general electorate. 53 of registered voters give her poor marks for being honest and straightforward with only 27 of her high marks. Now, these numbers are significant because they underscore that Voter Perception is still an issue for clinton, even after the first debate, benghazi hearing and bidens decision not to get into the race. This morning clinton is releasing this new ad here in iowa and New Hampshire. Its focused on gun safety, and it comes after clinton met last night in chicago with mothers and family members of africanamerican men and boys who were mostly killed during interactions with law enforcement. Among those at the meeting, the mothers of trayvon martin, Michael Brown and tahrir rice. Now this issue of gun violence and also the black lives Matter Movement increasingly pressing in this democratic primary. Expect secretary clinton to focus on all of that later today here in iowa. Matt,esavannah. All right. Kristen welker in iowa for us. Kiss ten, thank you very much. With an election one year out there theres a popular phrase candidates its the long viewi they say you dont want to look at poll numbers now. They have little impact of what will actually happen in 12 months. Are they right . We edecided to look back. In 2007 this is how the polling stacked up on the democratic side. Hiisary clinton had 47 opinion to 25 for president obama. As we know obama went on to win the democratic nomination and the presidency. And on the republica side it was Rudy Giuliani leading the pack with 33 and john mccain hacad 16 and as we know senator mccain eventually became the republican nominee. And heres how the race looked in 2011. Mitt romney had 28 and her mincane was 27 . Romney went on to become the partys nominee. Lets turn now to nbc nightly news anchor lester holt who talked about the 016 race, his legacy in the white house and a lot more in that inteteheiew. I have to tell, looking at thosenumbers, you forget. You forget how quickly things can change the i sat down with the president. We wanted to talk about criminal Justice Reform and spent a lot of time on that and gave us a few minutes later on to talk about the 2016 election. Hes kind of on outside looking in right now at this process. He talks about silly season as he calls it and he pointed out that right now were not hearing a lot in terms of specifics. I think the problem with election season is sometimes folks want to devote a lot more b to sloganiering and irring folks up emotionally, but they are not spending enough time, you know, really trying to explain to the america people wh tat exactly are you trying to do . That was kind of his broad vist at the situation right now. He did, of course, tweak the nose at the republicans a little bit. Oo mentions its silly season d. Have that mocking comment for the gop candidates and last debate do you get the sense hes following this very closely or occupied with other issues . I think hes following it very closely and i think he will become more inv lve. By the way, he said something very similar to me about the cnbc debate and pointing out that if youre going to try to take on World Leaders youve got to be able to deal with the moderators and well play that tonight on nightly news but hes dri ing down. He talked about with republicans, the sense that theres kind of a disgruntled element as he put them that seem to be driving the conversation through social media and i i think we all recognize that the electorate will become more engaged now as we move past the holiday season. Hes watching very closely. Well get more of that interview with president obama tonight on nbc nightlytnews. The mystery now of what cause that had passenger plane crash in egypt is deepening this morning. U. S. Officials telling nbc news theyo re ruling out a missile, but could it have been a bomb . Nbc chief global correspondent bill neely is in cairo. Y,bi i, good morning to you. Reporter yeah, good morning, matt. A lot of significant velopments. U. S. Defense officials telling nbc news that heat flash rules out a missile strike but nothing else, and we have the first hints of what might have been he ard on the cockpit voice recorders. The heat flash was detected over the desert of the exact time of the crash, but the brief bsght light seen by the u. S. Military satellite could have been caused by many things. It could have been a missile or a bomb on the plane. It could have been an engine or fuel tank exploding in midair or even the plane hitting the ound. The infrared satellite detected a flash, not a heat trail, so defense officials tell nbc news a missile is not the cause. Russian nnt agency says one black box reveals routine conversations, then unusual sounds in the cockpit but no distress signal. The debris field is also yielding clues. The Russian News Agency says are describes as elements not related to the aircraft structure. Isis claims it downed the plane. Egypts president dismisses that. Thats propaganda. Reporter its propaganda, he says, and warns about jumping to conclusions. The u. S. Is cautious, too, about a terrorist link. Its unlikely, but i wouldnt rule it out. Reporter investigators are working on the two flight recorders, extracting information but still releasing none. The airline metrojet claims a technical fault couldnt have caused the crash, blaming and external impact. Russian Officials Say that isnt based on fact. Among the dead the sheen family pictured leaving for egypt. Their deaths, like all the others, still unexplained. So investigators are ruling out nothing at moment, not mechanical failure nor mass murder as a result of terrorism, and still no official word here on what those black boxes might reveal, the hints though suggest an event so sudden and unexpect the the crew simply had no time to do anything. Matt, savannah . Bill neely in cairo, thank you so much. We learned overnight that the man who played a pivotal role in persuading the u. S. In 2003 has died. Talking about ahmed chalabi, an iraqi politician. He lived years in exile but hes the guy who bushed the Bush Administration with since discredit the information about weapons of mass destruction. The 72yearold died of an apparent heart attack. Now to new allegations against volkswagen which the u. S. Government says got caught cheat on emissions tests again, this time for more than 10,000 more cars than the company has previously acknowledged. Nbcs tom costello is on the story again. Tom, good morning. Reporter hi, good morning, savannah. This could mean millions more in new fines for the worlds second largest carmaker which has already admitted to altering engines to harm harm full emissions in more than 11 now the epa says its also found fraud under the hood of thousands of pores,s, volkswagens luxury line. They are amongst volkswagens priciest cars and most profitable. Luxury suvs like the pores, cayenne and vwturig as well as 2005 audi models with a v6 Diesel Engine that the epa says vw equipped with secret software to fool investigators. In a statement to deny the latest allegations, vw insists no software has been installed to alter emissionsr characteristics in a forbidden manner, pledging to cooperate full wet epa to clarify this matter in its entirety. Vws effort to clear the air comes barely a month following the american people, the epa and their counterparts around the world have been defrauded by volkswagen. Reporter then the epa found nebely half a million vw vehicles emitting harmful pollutants known to cause smog and asthma. Our company was dishonest, and in my german ords we have totally screwed up. Reporter proposed first fine, 18 billion. Now a possible 375 million more. Yeah, that, this laysest spat with the epa could really hurt sales of oughty and pores, brands in the u. S. Which had been unscathed by the scandal. Meanwhile regul ators ctntinue to tell car owners of all cars affected they are safe to drive even though they emit high levels of nitrogen oxide. Guys, back to you. N thank you. Former olympic star Oscar Pistorius is facing an appeal by prosecutors who argue taday he should have been convicted of murder, not the lesser charge of culpable homicide for killing his girlfriend Reeva Steenkamp. He was released last month less than a year into his fiveyear sentence and moved into his uncles mansion for house arrest, but stabe is the arguing that the trial judge emisinterpreted parts of the law and ignored important evidence. A panel of five judges now is he arint thispinpeal. The number ofee. Coli cases link to chipotle restaurants is expe ted ttho grow as health n ofeficials in the popular chain ich has closed 43 stores in two states search for the source that have outbreak. Nbc National CorrespondentMiguel Almaguer is in portland. Miguel, good morning to you. Reporter hey, matt, good morning. Still unclear when stores here in the Pacific Northwest will reopen, this as customers who have fallen ill have filed lawsuits against chiple. This Morning Health officials are trying to track down the origins of the chipotle e. Coli outbreak thats already affected 22 people. And while they expect to note source and strain of the outbreak later today with at least one official suggesting the outbreak could have been produce. They have also b een bracing for even more cases of sick diners in the days ahead. Chris collins is one of the eight who were hospitalized. And this was intense pain at just would never stop. It just wouldnt stop to the pointts, where i couldnt sleep at all. Reporter chipotle says the outbreak may be connected to one of its locations in portland and seattle, but it voluntarily closed 43 restaurants, including all of those in Washington State out of a, quote, abundance of caabution. Buying local is a proud part of chipotles business model. Local farms whenever possible. Were buying great ingredients and making sustainably raise the ingredients available to everybody whichlis a very important mission. Reporter but this e. Coli tbreak is the third health ca bre in four months for the casual dining chain. In august, almost 100 customers fell ill to the norovirus traced back to a location in Southern California and weeks later a salmonella outbreak that affected dozens of people was linked back to tomatoes served at 22 of its restaurants. Doctors said e. Coli outbreak can cause serious ealth isrte. Tha hope later on today to have a better number on the true scope of those who have been affected by the illness. Matt and savannah, back to you. All right, miguel, thank you very much. There were tense moments on a Spirit Airline in los angeles overnight before the plane even got off the ground. Ven passengrys had to be removed from the plane because of a dispute over a seat. The incident was caught on a cell phone camera. Witnesses say the airline overbooked that flight and when one man got to his seat apparent g there was someone already in it. The man allegedly argued with the Flight Attendant and refused to be reassigned to another seat prompting the crew to call in the police. As we sa f, seven passengers were escorted off the ane, accused of being disruptive and inciting other passengers. At least o of them says they were discrfiinated against for being black. Spirit airlines has not sponded toof request for comment. There was plenty of drama meantime during monday night football between the Carolina Panthers and indianapolis colts. It wasnt just on the field either. Look at this. During the Fourth Quarter two members of an activist group rappelled from the upper deck and unfurled a banner saying dump dominion, protesting americas financing of a liquefied natural gas process. Charlotte process was called to get them down. In overtime the panthers kicker booted a 52yard field goal to seal the win for the Carolina Panthers and keep their perfect season alive. Weve done sports. Got to do weather, israel. Thats right. Had some windy conditions out in riverside, california, wind blowing around and the storm system pushing through and also as you go into the mountains so does springs, california. Take a look at snow coming down. Pa s of nevada picking up 10 inches of snow, so winter out there but guess what . Its going to feel like summer here. Jet stream way up to the north and so temperatures are going to stay nice and warm here and staying cool out west. Look at some of these readings that well see over the next three days. Kansas city youre 75, tupelo youre 76 and chicago will see a temperature of 72. Highs 22 degrees above normal as you get into the great lakes and northeast and washington, d. C. 73, and if youre lucky enough to be down in florida, recordsetting heat today, 90 in gainesville and orlando and 86 vero beach and tampa coming close with a temperature of 86. Were going to get to your local forecast com mastering the art of refinement one dark chocolate rises above the rest lindt excellence created by our master chocolatiers pure, rich, darkly intense. Made like no other crafted elegantly thin to reveal complex layers of Flavor Experience excellence with all your senses and discover chocolate beyond compare try lindt excellence with a touch of sea salt. Its cool morning out there. Around 50. Give or take a couple of de