Harold, if they need to win or if they must win. Whats your take on how theyre gonna do here . Well, i think pennsylvania is certainly a mustwin state for donald trump. And hillary would like to win it, as well. But we know that there are pennsylvania is not monolithic. So both of them have, maybe, a shot at winning it. Donald trumps certainly an outside chance, but if he can get those people in between the two big urban centers to vote for him, you know, who knows what will happen . Right, traditionally. Its been a democraticheld state for a long time. 1988 the last time they went with a republican candidate for president , anyway. So it could flip. Its gonna be down to the wire, i know. Lets look at a couple of polls and just show you what recently has been seen out there in the public when they do some polling of possible voters. Hillary clinton leading donald trump 11. 7 in one of the polls. That was a nate silver forecast. And also, a second poll showed a little bit tighter race, with her at 48 and donald trump at 37 . A margin of error of 3. 4, so that would take into account her winning still, but not by as wide of a margin. Still, all bets are off because there are key groups here that are really flowing in a different direction than any have ever flowed before. Young people not necessarily supporting Hillary Clinton as they did president obama. And, of course, white, educated women not necessarily supporting the republican candidate. So whole groups are shifting, and this is surprising, dont you think . Its exactly right, monica. The usual demographics are not falling into line as you would have expected them, especially the millennials who so many of them had plighted their troth to bernie sanders. And they have to be wooed by Hillary Clinton, which was what she was doing this week at the university of pennsylvania, when she was talking about student debt. Also, you have the factor of the Green Party Candidate and the libertarian. And most commentators have said that that helps donald trump, that any votes that are cast for those candidates would take away from hillary. So you really dont know at this point. There are no insurances, lets say, at this point. And there are other states that could be the tipping point, too, to give you the 270 electoral votes that a president needs to win florida, michigan, ohio. Also key states virginia there are a number of them that are unpredictable at this point. But theyre gonna try down to the last minute, im sure. Yeah, and if we look at pennsylvanias 20 electoral votes, its really an arbiter of what might be happening in the rest of the country. So i dont think we can look at it in a vacuum. If pennsylvania goes donald trump, chances are ohio goes donald trump. There are a number of voters that might not be getting those phone calls from pollsters because theyre not what we in the polling language are considered likely voters. So you have, as we talked about, the demographics being so different, you might have voters that are inclined to support donald trump who could also be registered democrats. So i think all bets are off the table. Certainly i wouldnt bet against nate silver or terry madonna, our panelist here on inside story. But i think we dont have a model to look at as to what may happen on november 8th. And it seems, as some of the polls, rich, are showing, that even after the conventions this summer that whatever gain they may have felt has really, apparently, been erased, and theyre sort of back where they were preconvention. Yeah, you know, i think its interesting. I think after the conventions, this was gonna get closer no matter what. But the interesting thing about pennsylvania is, its always sort of the rabbit, right . Youre chasing that rabbit down the hole. It always goes democratic on a president ial side, it always looks close, pennsylvanias always on that battleground list you know, the battle state. But i think jeff is right. When you look at all those battleground states, pennsylvania is probably, out of all of them, whether its florida or ohio or michigan, always the one thats probably more likely to be democratic. And, of course, the big debate tomorrow night the first of three that theyre gonna have the next several weeks. And any quick answers . Who do you think is gonna win, if you will . Im sure all the commentators will say after who scored this point or that point, but donald trump says hes ready just by definition. He has been used to many debates, of course, cause he had so many 16 contenders that started the field but Hillary Clinton has been studying long and hard. Whos gonna win it . [ chuckles ] i think it depends on which donald shows up at the debate. And i think hillary has the tougher job here because she has to prepare for four possible different donalds coming to the debate floor you know, the insulting donald, the calm and statesmanlike donald, who has, you know, recently appeared, the the petulant donald, so i think she has a more difficult time. Were and and and i believe that style is as important as substance, at least during this first debate. You know, when theyre out of the gate, you want to see can he hold up against her . Plus the threshold is a lot higher for her. Even if he comes off as, you know, barely acceptable, hes gonna win the debate because people arent expecting as much from him as they are from her. Plus shes had a lot of experience debating over many years a lifetime of career politics. Hes a new politician, if you will, even though hes been a successful businessman. What were you gonna say . Im sorry. Well, i was just gonna say unfortunately debates have become contests of oneliners. So, you know, that gives trump an advantage. So, im not sure who will win the debate. I think on substance certainly i expect her to win. But in terms of what Public Opinion will be, i dont know. And the numbers could be as big as a super bowl if you will because people really want to see how theyre gonna go together the sparks if that, or maybe substance as well, which would be nice, if that were i also think theres this unique dynamic with donald trump where hes being graded on a curve, right . Right. You talked about it. If hes not graded on a curve and you sit there and you look at the substance and you look the the real quality of their answers, hillarys gonna win this debate outright. If if if he just doesnt throw up, some people are gonna call him a winner. Its a win, right. And thats bizarre and i think unfair. All right, well, were gonna have some special coverage after the president ial debate and after action news, following that. Its a special version of inside story on monday night, live. So i hope youll join us on monday at 11 30 p. M. For our special coverage of the president ial debate with a panel of people analyzing how they did and saying who the winners and losers are and what points they scored that evening. All right, lets move on and talk about several more key races coming up, of course, in just a few weeks. That Pennsylvania Senate race is hot and heavy. Both candidates, obviously, are trying at the last final stretch here to get some heavy scoring going. But it looks like pat toomey, according to a number of polls, is losing ground. It may be because of the donald trump factor. Hes been, on the one hand, trying to not totally distance himself but certainly not courting the donald followers and not standing with him at events. So, is that going to end up being the catalyst that costs him the race . He is the incumbent, rich. Yeah, you know, i saw some of his ads have been very effective, i thought, around im on the board of ceasefire, right . He has he actually has a decent record for for a republican on gun control and gun violence. But i was surprised to see an ad this week where he did a little bit of the namecalling thing, you know, trying to give katie a nickname, right . I think it was shady katie, and i hesitate to repeat that. But youre not gonna distinguish yourself from donald trump if youre acting like donald trump. And i know that wasnt his ad. That was a committee ad, but i think he has to be very careful in terms of the tone and the nature of the campaign and not to do any of that, right . This might be the year of the woman politically. Well have to see. You just cant tell at this point, but according to the polls, Katie Mcginty, in three different polls, is gonna win according to them. Pollsplus, if you include economic and historical data, has her winning. Polls, if you just look at them solely, has her winning. And if the race were that day that the poll was taken, she won there, as well. So it might be that democrats are doing less ticket splitting is the point of these polls and so perhaps thats gonna be the key. The southeast is different, in this respect southeast pennsylvania. You have a couple of incumbent congressmen congressmen meehan and costello who frankly are dont have very formidable opponents, at least thats what their numbers are showing. And theyre likely going to win. Thats a ticket split from a hillary. I also think i think that bodes well for someone like pat toomey. I think youre gonna see a lot of folks in the suburbs come out and look at the ballot and realize theyve always been maybe pat meehan supporters or Ryan Costello supporters and theyre gonna look at the Toomey Mcginty race and i think there are there is gonna be some ticket splitting. It has happened more in pennsylvania than in other states even though that hasnt been the national trend. Right, the trend nationally is less spitting. I mean, i kind of jeff basically said it all, with the ticket splitting. I think the thing about pat toomey is and rich also sort of referenced that he is someone who appeals across the aisle. He appeals to those who normally would not vote for a republican. And hes also been very good with constituent services. Katie mcginty, i mean you can say all the good things that you want about her public service, but shes not a known quantity when youre dealing one on one with her as an individual. Plus, you were talking about name calling. Some of her ads have been particularly i would call them juvenile or mean girl in a sense. And im not gonna go over some of the things that she said as well. But she consistently has called pat toomey millionaire pat toomey. Katie mcginty could match him dollar for dollar in terms of her net worth. So i think that theyre in this particular case, i think that there will be ticket splitting. All right. Were gonna have to wait and see. We do have special coverage of a debate between those two candidates coming up. Jim gardners going to be the moderator there of the pennsylvania senatorial debate. Thats monday, october 24th, at 7 00 p. M. , right here on 6abc. So youll be able to listen to both candidates, make your own decision, and come to some kind of decision before the ballot is in place. Time for the senate race discussion now. We have a couple of folks im sorry the attorney generals race. Also very contested race here in pennsylvania. Josh shapiro broke old records with his fundraising over the summer 1. 7 million. Fairly quiet race, but he certainly has the money lead and that does buy Television Ad time, which is key in some areas, especially in the southeast. But his opponent also John Rafferty is putting in a good effort there, trying to see if he can win the race on the republican side. Any guess on that one . Well, before i mention that, let me just say one thing about the Toomey Mcginty race. I think the fact that toomey is running really str trying to run strongly on his two votes progun control votes three years ago indicated that hes in trouble. On the attorney general race, you know, you have two candidates which one, actually on the paper, is more qualified than the other John Rafferty. But, you know, the amount of money that josh shapiro is raising indicates that he certainly has the inside track to a victory. I think he thinks so. So its the size of the war chest for shapiro. Its also the connections that that represents. So he has a very good base in the state within the Democratic Party, but outside as well. Yeah, and josh shapiro is everywhere. He must have a twin. I mean, and i say this, i like them both. I know them both. I want to disclose that, but he and he does cross when it comes to certain issues, whether it be medical malpractice reform or things like that. The other thing is what hes done in Montgomery County in terms of executive leadership. And he has pinned his hopes, and i agree with harold in terms of experience, on looking to clean up the office, as does senator rafferty. But in terms of you need a strong manager, a strong executive and in this particular year, due to Kathleen Kane, i think that resonates. Plus, he doesnt come out as a partisan. He doesnt come off as being hyperpartisan, which is also gonna be helpful in this age. But coming after Kathleen MccainKathleen Mccain im thinking Kathleen McgintyKathleen Kane if anything will be an improvement. We also have special coverage of that. Inside story will have a Candidates Forum with both of the attorney generals candidates on sunday, october 16th, at 11 30, replacing inside story that day. Josh shapiro and John Rafferty will be in discussion on that particular panel. And we hope youll join us to see how both men feel on the issues. All right, lets talk about another very serious and difficult week in the police and africanamerican male standoff in our country. Charlotte, north carolina. Tulsa, oklahoma. Very difficult situations, and the reaction, of course, in charlotte caused the National Guard to be sent out. So i dont even know where to begin to say to people weve got to stop the violence. Clearly thats obvious in america that people want to resume some sense of normalcy. But also there is depth behind this issue that we need to confront and figure out what do we do . Rich, where do you start . So we have a directive here for the Philadelphia Police called directive 10. There are 18,000 Police Departments across the country and most of them dont have a uniform standard for the use of Excessive Force. When you watch that video in tulsa and im happy to say that that officer was charged with manslaughter, which is an incredibly important part of what were trying to talk about in terms of building that gap of trust and holding officers accountable. But youre only allowed to use Excessive Force or im sorry fatal force, lethal force when its objectively reasonable that you are in risk and threat of your life. And our officers are taught that. And one of the important things in tulsa is that a failure to obey commands doesnt, in and of itself, rise to that standard where you get shot for not listening to a Police Officer. And thats what it looks like happened in tulsa. Right, and yet on the other hand, harold im trying to weigh both sides here and be fair to everyone we had the situation just a week and nine days ago in philadelphia where a female Police Officer, sitting in her cruiser, shot 18 times an africanamerican female Police Officer, as it turned out and the suspect later was killed after killing several other people or injuring and killing people. So theres a heightened fear by suspects and by police. Its just everybodys afraid of each other. How do you cut the fear . Yeah, in each one of these cases, you have to look at individually and rule whether or not the Police Officer or the suspect or the person involved was in error. What people need to realize, though, is this goes much farther than policing. This is not about policing. When you see the number of people on the streets of charlotte as you have the last two or three nights, those frustrations are not just about someone being shot. Theyre about frustrations in these communities where theyre impoverished, where they dont have jobs, where they see a Police Presence thats so strong that it seems like an occupation. All these factors are in there. And until we get a president who has an urban policy that actually deals with some of these other issues, you will continue to see these reactions when something goes wrong, like a police shooting. Right, and, you know, harold, youre absolutely right. First of all, you have to look at each situation separately. The whole idea of having a National Policy i think is problematic because youre looking at the tulsa situation was different from the charlotte situation, which was different from ferguson, which was different from dallas, which was different from so many of the other baltimore so many of the other crisis situations that weve seen. Harolds also right, too, that it goes deeper than just the interaction between young africanamerican youth and Police Officers. It has to do with poverty. It has to do with lack of employment. But i will say one thing about charlotte, and also what happened in baltimore my hometown there is no justification for what is happening in those streets that is looting, that is rioting, that is criminal activity, that is not legitimate protest, and i know everybody agrees with that, but there have still been excuses made based on desperation of people in those communities. They are terrorizing their own communities. And that has to be said. That has to be established. Thats not legitimate protesting. Thats why it was so good to see what happened in charlotte last night. It was a peaceful protest throughout the evening. Police officers were walking and talking to protesters, and i hope thats what we have repeats in other cities. And the churches were involved, too. Yes, well have to take a break. Inside story continues right after this. Inside story is presented by temple university. Remarkable change isnt easy, but for those who take charge, it comes naturally. Explore temples impact. Visit temple. Edu impact. For senate, Katie Mcginty will stand up to the big oil p