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Party beats hillary clinton. >> but in fairness, donald trump tweets out polls about an independent run by himself. that's not tamping down speculation. >> but when asked about it he's been very clear about it. look, your question is am i confident that he's going to either be the nominee or support the nominee? yes. >> okay. so reports at this point in time, and this is the first debate where you've really faced this, talk about whether there's going to be a brokered or a contested convention for republicans. all of the sort of like minutia of the delegate stuff aside because i've heard you a...

Capitol. private off the record gathering. it started out about logistics for the convention in cleveland but about two hours in near the end of the conversation it devolved as many attendees describe it to me. it became a conversation of angst and what to do if it actually had a convention where no one had enough delegates. what would be the second ballot strategy. how would the establishment take control. that was the discussion. so the numbers we're talking about here, you need somewhere a little north of 1,200 delegates to win the -- to win outright, right? 1,237. there's 2,470 total deleg...

Let's get some political analysis now from experts. we have cnn's senior political e have rebecca berg of real clear politics and jeffrey toobin. so nia, this idea that's getting a lot of traction is the idea that republicans could have a brokered or contested convention. that we could get to the point where no one has enough delegates to seize it. this is not something that happens everyday. >> it happens in a lot in the fantasies of political nerds but not in reality. only three times, 1948 with dewey, 1952 with stevens and 1976 with ford which was a contested and not brokered. the magic num...

Buckle up, we just got the official map for the road to the republican nomination. and it's going to be a bumpy ride. today the rnc laid out how the states will award their delegates in 2016. there are 2,500 delegates up for grabs in total, and the magic number to get the nomination is going to be 1,237. 5% of that total will be at stake in iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, and nevada, the early states, more than 55% of the total are going to be up for grabs in the month of march. by the end of april, 400 more delegates and 80% of the total will be spoken for. that number goes up to 80% in ...

Economists were predicting. this is tied to the rate of inflation just released this morning by the bureau of labor statistics. with a lower inflation rate comes a slight increase in the social security checks. 56 million recipients of social security see the checks going up just a little bit and it is about half of what last year's increase was. so it's down considerably. this is among the lowest increases since automatic annual adjustments were adopted back in 1975 and reflects very low inflation. here is a look at this year compared with recent years in terms of that cola, or cost of living...