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47% to 44%. in the margin of error. and trump has regained his lead in ohio, where he and clinton were tied three weeks ago. trump now at 46%, clinton dropping four points to 41%. trump also had a five-point advantage in arizona, according to cnn/orc. 49% to 44%. and the same poll shows trump ahead by six points in nevada, 49% to clinton's 43%. though top political journalist jon ralston cautions the poll shows trump leading in clark county, which obama won by 15 points in 2012. meanwhile, two of the new polls in florida show a dead heat. clinton up by two points, 49% to trump's 47% in the cnn...

It's not going to happen. >> trump has a 4.8 average lead in texas. a state mitt romney won by 16 points in 2012. meanwhile, the new poll in florida shows clinton 46% to trump's 43%. a look at the partisan breakdown shows trump's struggle among florida's likely voters clinton is garnering 91% of clinton support and 82% of republicans for trump. if clinton gets victories in the states where she's currently leading comfortably, that alone would give her 272 electoral votes, more than necessary to win. the electoral college map has the architect of george w. bush's victories, karl rove saying he ...

2012. meanwhile a new poll in florida shows clinton 46% to trump's 43%. a look at the partisan breakdown shows trump's struggle among florida likely voters, clinton is garnering 91% of democrats support, while trump is taking 82% of republicans, a problem he's having around the country. the associated press finds if clinton gets victories in states she's currently leading comfortably, that alone would give her two more electoral votes than needed to win. the electoral college map has karl rove saying he no longer thinks a trump victory is possible. >> well, if he plays an inside strength he ca...

He made two trips to the middle east. >> the fbi says archer made trips to saudi arabia in 2011 and to egypt in 2012. >> meanwhile, the officer who was shot, jesse hartnet is recovering in a philadelphia hospital this morning. he is facing multiple surgeries. his left el poe was shattered. we are following this live in philadelphia. good morning, miguel, what have you learned today? >> reporter: good morning. it is absolutely incredible that officer survived this, not only survived but operated so valiantly under incredible conditions. also, police looking into, digging into the life of edward...

>> republicans need six seats. what's the projection? how many are they going to pick up? >> i'd say exactly six. that's probably six plus or minus five. that could be -- >> they could pick up 11 seats? >> they could. >> the dems have fallen out of love with their guy. the democratic senate campaign committee put out a rebuttal saying silver's forecast in 2012 was wrong. also issuing a fundraising alert based on silver's scary and shocking predictions about this year's term. silver called that hypocritical. it didn't take long for the party's argument to pop up on msnbc. >> you may recall silv...