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Almost any economist will tell you they don’t have a crystal ball. But using all kinds of fancy (and sometimes not so fancy) models, they make predictions about forthcoming economic data. And oftentimes, economists’ consensus forecasts are spot on.
This time last week, the prospects seemed to be growing dimmer that the September jobs report would land this Friday as planned.
US employers in the private sector added an estimated 89,000 jobs in September, a much lower total than expected and a potential indication of a sharp pullback in the labor market, payroll processor ADP reported Wednesday.
Higher gas prices heated up overall inflation last month, but the Federal Reserve got some welcome news: Its preferred inflation gauge cooled to its lowest level in two years.
US inflation is now much slower than last summer’s red-hot pace, but it’s not guaranteed it will drift all the way down to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target without a sharp rise in unemployment. That possibility remains unlikely.