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Reason and people were thinking tester was in great shape but now a couple of private and public polls showing the race close, so i add that add fifth one. i think you re absolutely right, 3 where republicans are playing defense, 5 where they are on the offense. what s interesting to me if you look at it since 1998, last ten midterms, if a race is a toss-up, right now we are talking about 9 races that are literally almost every one of them considered by prognostic as toss-up, those races, 80% of the time have gone for the party that won that state in the last presidential election and of the states we are talking about in nine races only one of them is in a state that hillary clinton won. now the lowest 67%, the high is 89% but the average is 80% that those are good numbers for republicans to keep the senate and maybe add one or two net seats to total. paul: here is another dynamic if you look at history we ve seen, when you have that many close tight races what often happens is they a ....

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