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Than about five seats. they need 17. so it's a very, very tough balancing act for democrats to appeal to not only seniors but appeal to their base of young voters to make sure they don't fall off as much as they have in past midterms. >> we did a jen ngeneric ballot. we had democrats up about three. about the same margin they were. when you look at these national polls, i had a polster tell me when you factor in particularly just simply the lines themselves, the reapportionment lines, the democrats ongeneric ballot test would have to lead by double digits before anybody like you would say the ...

That's an okay number. but that doesn't put a lock on this by any stretch of the imagination. so whether it's his approval rating or what he's getting in the bat lot question against mitt romney, he doesn't have to look too far over his shoulders to see that that's mitt romney. he still only has 50%. the approval rating is a key barometer and, again, high 40s. still an iffy number. it's a very close race and it's gotten closer in each of these three states. >> i want to just emphasize one more time, the job approval rating for the president is 48/48. that looks like a ballot test as much as an...

That looks like a ballot test and look at nevada. 50% approve of his job, 46% disapprove. you got to -- you get this feeling that we could just go with job approval rating. wherever the president is at 49 or 50 he probably carries that state and wherever he's below 49 it'll be a total recount state if it's sitting at 48 or if it's lower than that he'll end up losing it. >> it may very well be that and we also see his right direction of the nation numbers have picked up but then ben mitt romney used to be upside down in terms of his likability. that's no longer the case, gosh, there's just so m...

The gallup polls as opposed to the state polls really showing a different picture and there's a lot of reasons for that. obviously different likely voter models. our surveys have more likely voters in these individual states than the national polls have for the entire country. so these are a big sample we're looking at and that's how we can drill down and tell folks what's really going on. we don't tell voters how to vote. they're not waiting for the next gallup poll, we're picking up what they are telling us how they are acting and thinking. >> i want to pick up on a couple of things here. th...

>> then it's a grinder. then it's grinded out. >> probably wins this election. if he loses the debate, even his own people, like the last time, think he lost, he will have a hard time winning this election. >> beth phooey, talking to pollsters on both sides, what was interesting about the last debate, suburban women have been a rock some lid demographic part of the president's coalition. they are not with him on the ballot test of but a more favorable view, like him more today on the economy than a week ago that seems to be the last hurdle for mitt romney. >> a lot of suburban women in long is...