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Suburban women. however, there is some hints that this voting group could peel away and mitt romney can get it. here's what we saw after the first debate. mitt romney's favorable rating went up with suburban women. his handling of the economy went up with suburban women. the only thing that didn't move enough was the ballot test. i think that's what you'll hear a lot tonight. you'll hear mitt romney trying to target these folks. not talking about social issues. you're going to hear the president, i think, try to bring this up in a way, because they believe this is their trump card into colorad...

On the other hand, the group to watch as far as the ballot test goes are the independents because they are much less lock into their particular pref presence at -- preference at the moment. your own poll showed that in virginia, according to wall street journal poll, independents moved a net seven points toward romney after the debate, and in ohio independents moved a net twelve points toward romney after the debate. those are big swings among independents, and it's one of the reasons romney is so much closer. >> if romney wins independents by that kind of margin, does he win the election? >> ...

Ballot test. most pollsters will tell you, in a presidential re-election, that the job approval number and the ballot test number will be virtually identical on election day. in ohio, the job approval's at 47%. the ballot test is at 51%. so he's overperforming the job approval by four points. is that going to be the case on election day? that's the yellow flag there for obama and the opportunity for romney. >> joe, i think the interesting thing about this is that as much as you say that the movement was not because of that first debate, we know that there's been a tightening in the race. and o...

Done a good job over the last three weeks. they have played error-free ball and romney has had errors. >> do you think they had such a good campaign or romney had an awful campaign. >> i think the obama campaign had a good convention and decent campaign. overall, i think it's a terrible campaign. some could argue with his approval ratings hovering over 50%, maybe he should be in a stronger position when it comes to his ballot test against governor romney. president obama has not done a great job. these criticisms of mitt romney not being on the campaign trail enough. i think president obama ha...

>> if they are competitive and winning with he's not putting a distance between himself and the president. >> let's look at the president's job approval and his job approval and ballot test will be the same number on election day. >> meaning, the what's the approval rating, 49 and 49. another way to watch these polls, by the way, and i've talked with both campaigns and if the president is sitting at 47, he lows. 49 or 50 -- 49 he'll find the one point he gets to 50 and he wins re-election. that 49 number is a big deal to