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Projection that we present today is very much into parts. Im going to begin with the first part. Starting near term outlook. This chart shows the evolution of Consumer Price inflation and its components since 2018. It shows that inflation has come off the peak in october last year and that it continues to fall over the rest of this year in our near term projection. Thats the piece showed in the shade of part of the chart. This fall can be attributed in large part to a full on contribution from energy. Fuel prices have declined, electricity and gas prices have stabilised, albeit at a higher level. The Dark Orange Bars on this chart show how the contribution from Energy Prices falling and turning negatively in the coming months. Giving off gems price cap on energy and gas bills, we expect inflation to take a further step ....
Has been very high. but it does appear to have peaked and as you can see on this chart, there are signs on the monthly figures that it is starting to ease. evidence collected by the bank s regional agents suggest that a moderation in food import prices being passed through the supply chain to consumer prices. so we do expect food price inflation to come down gradually over the rest of this year. the contribution from food price inflation falls accordingly in our near term projection. from about two percentage points to one .25 percentage points to one .25 percentage points to one .25 percentage points towards the end of the year. call goods price inflation, it is taking time for the four energy prices to work through the price chain and the price of imported goods are continuing to rise, despite the fall in export prices. that s why in our central projection we expect call goods price inflation to come down ....