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Increase In Core Inflation Won't Be Transitory Bad Timing For decades the Federal Reserve anticipated inflation whenever the Unemployment Rate fell to a low level. In 9 of the last 10 recessions since 1954 the Fed hiked the federal funds rate over a period of time until they went too far. The Unemployment Rate subsequently jumped as the economy entered a recession causing the Fed to slash the federal funds rate. This pattern is consistent especially with benefit of hindsight. The one exception was in 1990 when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait causing oil prices to spike and a brief war. Please...

Cnbc steve lehman is digging into this report. makes sense prices are up a lot from last year. we were staying at home in lockdown doing nothing and buying nothing. what does this mean for the american people? because we don't remember what we paid for milk or gas two years ago. we remember what it was a week ago and people are freaking out. >> i think that's right, stephanie. here what is happening. you mentioned the concept of base effects. what happened is prices fell like a rock last year. you're right. people forget that. now they are coming up very sharply. we all started to drive at onc...

Horrific. base effects will trail off which leads us to 2022. 2022 you'll likely see a rollover in economic growth because the base, which is 2021, is so high. at 6.5% in growth this year. next year a slow down in economic activity. higher taxes and higher inflation. while times are good and 9.3 million jobs out there, perhaps people don't take them because the government has now put the market clearing price of going to get a job at 32,000. so you're making less than that, doesn't make sense to go get a job. but when times get rougher and you have both higher prices, fewer jobs and slower eco...

Written by Jim WelshMacro Tides Weekly Technical Review 02 April 2021

Written by Jim WelshMacro Tides Monthly Report 01 June 2021