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40 A series of swing changes have led to Vilade’s current “toe twist” stride, a very simple cut that leans into his great natural bat control and strength-derived pop. He can make contact with pitches all over the zone but typically does his damage slugging pitches on the inner half, especially wayward lefty fastballs in there. Watch how his groundball rate trends in 2021. The 2019 swing that may have helped bring his groundball rate closer to average (50% previously, down to 42% in ’19) has again been changed, so it’s hard to say how much damage he’s going to be capable of now.

March 15, 2021 If you want power, pull the ball in the air. It’s a truism because it’s true. On pulled air balls (line drives and fly balls), batters hit .558 with a 1.285 slugging percentage in 2020. When they went to the opposite field, they hit .297 with a .522 slugging percentage. It isn’t rocket science; pulling means power, and power means production. Want another way of putting it? Those opposite-field air balls were hit with an average 86.8 mph exit velocity. Only 26.6% of them were hit at 95 mph or harder. When batters pulled the ball, they did far better — they checked in a...

March 15, 2021 Last week, MLB announced that it was implementing several rule changes throughout the minor leagues in 2021. While the hostile takeover of the minor leagues was based primarily on economic factors, the new arrangement allows the league to act unilaterally on other issues as well, including the use of affiliate teams as testing grounds for new rules experimentations. Most of these rules had been proposed at one time or another in the recent past, and the league is spreading the adjustments across the various minor league levels: Base sizes: In Triple-A, the sizes of each base wi...

5.8 There he is again, Mike Yastrzemski! Can you believe he was atop my 2020 upside list too?! Last year, I almost nailed his AB/HR, and this year, I’m actually slightly more optimistic. Steamer is too, but still weighing Yastrzemski’s pre-2019 seasons far more than I am. Though the sample was small, of course, his xHR/FB rate was almost identical to his 2019 mark, suggesting the slight decline in his actual HR/FB rate was a fluke. This continued non-belief by the projection systems keep making Yastrzemski a bargain. During parts of three seasons amounting to one full one, Jake Cave has s...

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