90% of the disagreement in the polls right now, paul, involves differing assumptions about the makeup of the electorate. if we have an electorate that looks like 2004, with equal numbers of democrats and republicans turning out, then a double digit lead for romney among independents means he wins comfortably. paul: right. on the other hand if we have an electorate that looks like 2008 with 7 percentage points more democrats than republicans in the electorate, then that s probably enough to save obama, even if he loses independents by a dozen points. well, where it s all in the makeup. paul: where do you think the recognizance electorate is going to turn out? somewhere maybe in between 2004 and 2008? and that would, i guess, make it very close. our last poll shows a 4.democratic margin of 35 democrat, 31 republicans. so that s right way, halfway between 2004 and 8.
standing among independents who gave barack obama an 8 point margin ever victory in 2008, 52-44. we re now showing in our latest resurgent, 51-39 for mitt romney. this is nothing new, independents have been going south on obama since the spring of 2009 after he proposed his stimulus package and a budget with a trillion dollar deficit. this is the first time in our polling that we ve seen romney with a double digit lead over obama. that would be a huge turn arn if the numbers held, a 20-point net turn around from the election in 2008. paul: okay, if that s true, and i agree with you the polls are showing that movement of independents to romney, if that s right and a big switch from 2008, why doesn t romney have a more comfortable lead at least 2 or 3 points in these polls?
point in here before i interrupted in the first segment about that. this is that we talk about the distortions of the ad, the bigger whopper that the president is telling on the campaign trail in the first clip where he basically says deregulations and tax cuts of the bush years caused the crisis and now mitt romney is going to do them again. there was no deregulation in the bush years. it s a myth that he s been perpetrating for years and any of the tax cuts caused the financial crisis, that s why lehman brothers and bear-stearns had too much the housing market. the housing market, it s insane. i think mr. mitt romney ought to be pushing back. as a quick extension, his idea instead of doing that with the economy back on its heels, raise taxes, which he will do if he gets reelected and impose more regulation on the economy. that s his solution to the problem we had before. i think the contrast in these closing arguments are very telling.
no question, romney has expanded the field well beyond mccain and in striking distance or ahead in almost all of the key states. the polls are giving hope. the national polls have consistently shown romney with a slight lead since, you know, mid october or so, but the state polls continue to show obama with a, some advantages in the electoral votes, so, i think both sides are looking at the polls and seeing hope. dan, let s step back briefly here, how important is this election? we always say the elections are the most important in x years, but i think this is the most important election since ronald reagan certainly in terms of setting the direction of the country and validating or not the huge expansion of government that barack obama has promoted in the first term. i agree, paul. i mean, historically the country is divided in the past century between the private economy and the public government. and there s always been a division of duties there.
again, to make a big contrast with some of the democrats running, even though their record suggests they wouldn t actually vote that way. can i add something to that, paul. yeah, i think that kim is right. i find is interesting that some of the states like montana and north dakota are running against the obama energy policy. people that are running for the pipeline, they re running for, now, for more drilling and by the way, heidi hydecamp says she would urge, urge president obama to fire for lisa jackson. if she could do that, i d vote for her. she s the head of the epa and once they re in office reliable votes for president obama if he wins. of course. paul: one surprise before we go, heather wilson has been closing the republican there, a tough state because mitt romney isn t going to win that state, but that may be one to look at, cause she s been gaining. coming up in our second half hour, with the national polls tied up all eyes are on