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Obama and romney. let's just take candidate a and candidate b. who would you want to be right now with the numbers playing? >> you would want to be candidate a assuming that's the unmentionable who is the president of the united states. he has a lot of roots to 270 electoral votes. if you look at candidate b, candidate b isn't even going to florida in the next few days. you can interpret that in one of two ways. a thinks he's already got it won, and the polls don't show that at all, or alternatively he thinks he has to bet he hasn't won, that he can't carry ohio, so he has to go to pennsylvani...

Five-point lead. president obama is also maintaining his lead in nevada. in iowa, president obama is still ahead. the national average is closer, but president obama has been on the rise there as well. so early voting has been going on for weeks now. in some states, and there are some interesting numbers on party breakdown of early voters so far. now, most early voters have been identified as democrats in ohio, nevada, iowa, florida, and north carolina according to the associated press. republicans have the edge in colorado. let's turn to bob shrum, professor of public policy at nyu and contri...

Street? no. >> let me talk about something else you are behind, which is the popular vote initiative. tell me what it is and what kind of ads you are running in iowa. >> what the popular vote initialtive is basically this. every four years we elect a president of the united states through the electoral college. it's a system called winner take all by state. in other words, in state say in new york if candidate a gets 51% of the vote, candidate a gets all the electoral votes in the state of new york and consequently candidate b gets none of them. what national popular vote is all about let's ha...

A number of runs at him in these debat debates. >> what's the most likely sna scenario where romney has a problem. >> when we get into a protracted republican primary season. because we're no longer in a winner take all situation. if this becomes a highly ideological race, a binary choice between candidate a, candidate b, and candidate a is the conservative candidate to mitt romney's more establishment candidate. it could be that mitt romney's fundamental problem in this race is that everybody who works in the political elite and the media elite think he's going to be the republican nominee. a...

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