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based on a fox news poll, the field has catching up to do. how is this race shaking up? let s go to julia manchester, kristen hahn and gop pollster lee carter. lee, start with you. governor desantis getting ready for a week where he will go to iowa, new hampshire, south carolina. they sound familiar. how important is it that he makes traction in those states? it s critical. he s message has to get big traction. it didn t last week. he s got a big job ahead of him. he has in many ways to reset his campaign. the last two months, he s been dropping in the polls. his excuse, he s not finally run yet. this is not official. now he has to make the case that he s the right man for the job. he has to focus on the economy, focus on inflation and stop focusing on the woke wars. that s what hurt himself the last two months and this will be chris call for people hearing him in a different way. julia, that underscores the challenge for governor desantis. the woke wars are probabl ....
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Piece predict. there s no wage price spiral. if you take out the lag of shelter inflation, they have about a 2. 5% rate right now. i don t believe the fed is keeping up with the times and they re going to do what you said, tighten too far and hurt on going cap x and business investment. charles: so with that in mind, they have 500 phds over there. golly. maybe they don t get out of the building much. you know, they talk about the time. there s an army of them always talking and trying to jaw bone the market. that s fine. you can consider that a tool. the powell fed has blew it on inflation and i think that they re try too hard and going to blow it again. you can have as many ph.d.s in the world. and the theory has never been proven as mmt has never gone up. we ve never had mmts for this ....
They can t get filled. we have that situation happening. charles: david, my concern looking at the last jobs report, wages are going up, but going up slower. we learned from the small business nfib that they re done. they won t spend much more on cap x or hiring. you have to be concerned about the so-called lag effect. the fed has done a lot. they ve been on a record pace. how concerned are you that they may go too far? i m far more concerned about that than the other. the idea that they would keep raising rates because too many people have jobs is absurd. it s immoral economics. jobs don t create inflations. people having jobs produces goods and services. it adds to supply and brings down inflation. your point that the rate of growth of wages has slowed, that s not only not good but the exact opposite of what them ....
The fed is going to raise again. they have to. they have committed to getting inflation back to the 2% goal. they haven t made a lot of progress. yes, they re long. they have to have more restrictive policies. they ll do that. what happens to cap x? well, companies are not going to make acquisitions and expand factories. they re going to come back on equipment and everything else. what are you getting the second half? a flat to down economy. those worried about recession probabilities, they re dead on. the second half of the year is where the recession is very high. charles: so we got one more hike. here s the thing that might be more frightening then. everyone agreeing the fed will hike. the massive amount of folks saying that the fed will have to cuts rates before this year is over. maybe in september. that means they destroyed the economy, right? if you re hiking, hiking and all of a sudden you have to make a u turn and cut, cut, you ve broken something badly. well, this is amon ....