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If you don't have enough votes, your candidates have been eliminated from this caucus location, it's object truce, it takes a long time. if you allow people to do that from the comfort of their own homes through virtual caucusing and by watching a live stream, that is going to make it a lot more possible for people who have, i don't know, lives, to participate. that means that not only will there be more participant, but in a good stroke for joe biden, the electorate will tend to be more moderate because you'll move past the fire breathing voters who are willing to pay the cost. >> dana: befor...

Manner. >> what have we underestimated here? how much are you counting on people who have never caucused before to show up? >> i don't know that we're counting on that. i do think that's going to be a phenomena we're going to see. i think one of the things that we've made very clear and that we don't want any of the caucus locations to run out of registration cards. we saw this in 2012 with the ron paul phenomenon of many people showing up the same night of the caucus and registering. and i know in my own caucus location, we had easily 15% of the people were first-time caucusers. >> the import...

Evangelical support. evangelical voters are a large part of the turnout in the iowa caucuses so that works well for cruz. the question for trump is if he's bringing these new caucus goers into the process will they actually turn out and be able to get them. this is literally about getting people into buses and putting them in those buses and getting the home their caucuses. >> the thing that trump has is he knows the name, address, e-mail number, phone number of everyone who has been at his rallies. it's not an organic thing. they know who they are. they sign these cards and sign up in advance...

Evangelical voters are a large part of the turnout in the iowa caucuses and so that works well for cruz. the question for trump is if he's bringing these new caucus goers into the process will they actually turn out and be able to get them. this is literally about getting people into buses and putting them in those buses and getting them to tear caucus sites. >> the thing that trump has is he knows the name, address, e-mail number, phone number of everyone who has been at his rallies. he knows who these people are. it's not an organic thing. they know who they are. they have to sign these card...

These connections with voters are a key ingredient in the iowa caucus recipe. we put msnbc's richard lui on the trail of other big numbers to watch for. good morning. >> now you're make me hungry. >> you want pizza. >> that's right, chris. long time coming but ten hours to go and the heat is on. so here's how to follow tonight's outcome by the numbers. we start with the number three, no candidate who has come in lower than third place has ever become president. it's the iowa winnowing process. 150, that's the average number of people at each caucus location, the intimate setting means next to ...