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State blitz where he's going around the country. they don't have one state to look for but multiple ways to get out of it. >> the state right now based on current polling, most likely to flip. is there one? >> i think of the blue, i think it would be new hampshire but of the blue states here, i think it's still wisconsin. i think that's the one. if i were them, i'd be camping out there and that's where they would have the best opportunity. they still think pennsylvania and i tell you, the clinton campaign, when you look at their final, look at how they're spending money. they're n the obamas, ...

Find -- florida, north carolina, ohio isn't enough anyway if she's holding the big blue wall, pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin plus colorado and virginia. you get rid of florida he has to find not only those 29 electoral votes that make up for that but also still missing another 20 somewhere. he's down 49. where does he find it? that's a pennsylvania plus a colorado plus virginia. the point is florida is a check mate state. pure and simple. clinton carries florida, check mate. >> chuck todd, thanks so much. we'll be talking to you all weekend. tune in at 5:00 eastern today for chuck and mt...

270 needed to win. the rest rely on flipping states like michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, new hampshire, colorado, new mexico, nevada or maine's second district. and trump's campaign announced $25 million ad blitz including michigan and new mexico along with virginia and colorado. just last week, democrats vice presidential nominee tim kaine said living florida would be check mate but last night he was in a state that went republican in 2004. >> we have one week until the most important election in my lifetime and wisconsin is absolutely key. we got to have you wisconsini wisconsinites. we h...

The numbers we are seeing now. >> put the numbers up on screen. women, 68% with an unfavorable rating for trump in january. now 62%. latinos have grown to 80%. another number we are focused on is the number of votes being cast across the country particularly in florida where both candidates will be today. this is the check mate moment they can lock up a state like florida. what can we read from the early numbers coming out of the state now? >> at this point in 2012 and remember barack obama won florida by one percentage point in 2012 republicans had a five-point lead. particularly when you hav...

Things get worse, we have this to help keep us afloat. - so that's very, very important for us. at this time tomorrow night, hillary clinton and donald trump will be in the thick of their final debate here in las vegas and in living rooms, bars around the country, drinking games will be in full swing. tonight, anything is still possible. either candidate could make a misstep or pull off a check mate. with that in mind, a look back at the first two debates and the lessons they may hold. here's phil mattingly. >> reporter: the high points. >> i will say this about hillary. she doesn't quit. sh...