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Question that everybody seems to be asking this week, and that is are we witnessing a shift in the national political climate in just 17 days out from election day. so here's why that day -- question is being asked. let's take a look at the latest numbers. this is the generic ballot, the question asked, they want the democrats or republicans to control congress. when we came on at the air at this exact time last week, this is where it stood. remember, republicans had the lead, it was a narrow lead. it was inside a point, nine tenths of a point. now, a week later, here is where the generic bell...

We have reporters on the ground there and then does two other battleground states we mentioned, we'll be joined by them shortly. plus, we will hear from voters in michigan that is where the governor's race has heated things up a bit this week and where there is a referendum to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, that will be on the ballot in a few weeks as well. all of that is ahead this hour. we'll start though with the question that everybody seems to be asking this week, and that is are we witnessing a shift in the national political climate in just 17 days out from election...

Inflation, all these other things, but what i really care about emitter elections, what you and i really work at, are these turnout numbers. which party has the advantage in turnout? those are the numbers that i will really be looking out over the next few days? >> rich, i pick up on the, because it's staggering if you take a step back and look at turnout from the midterm elections. it was about 150 million in 2018. if you went back to 2014, i think it was 86 million. there is just been this explosion of interest in politics, where you can tie it to the rise of trump and everything around him,...

A lead in excessive 3. 1 points, the average, the real clear average. republicans with that advantage now. so, you start to see here, if you take the trend line for the year, it really does start to look like republicans are creating some distance here. let's just remind you, go back to me, go back to the spring, republicans have been pretty solid advantage on the generic belt. remember in 2021, this off year elections, they won the governorship in virginia, they nearly pulled a big upset in new jersey, they came into 2022 with a head of steam and then, at the end of june, you've got that supr...

Believe. >> 43-29. >> and tampa bay poll has romney 42-21. they are all closing at the same time. they are all usually right when they are within two or three points. he may be on his way to a big win. >> if it's a big win, is it going matter because newt is very strong on the air saying he is not getting out. he will take this all the way to the convention. >> true. a lot what is going on right here, romney found his voice in the last debate. he had a great debate and it started the ball in the right direction. newt gingrich hadn't done anything to change that. it kind of snowballing 5%, 7% a...