Page 30 - Computer Model News Today : Breaking News, Live Updates & Top Stories | Vimarsana

Florida? the east coast of florida? probably. will it make landfall? right now that is not something that's certain, but the computer model certainly bring it in close along that space close to florida. and then we really start to diverge more. as you can imagine, the further out we go in the forecast time period, the models don't always agree. but the fact that there are all kind of closing in right along where the jetstream is, that river of current is very warm. it's the guiding force behind other hurricanes like hugo in 1989 some 30 years ago. what we think what's happening is that high pr...

Change a little bit. that's why there's so much uncertainty. we talk about the actual cone. you look at the last five years, and that's the forecast. we try to communicate these uncertainties, and it does happen, especially when you're measuring thousands of parameters. when you get into the models, you can get these small changes. >> how certain are you it can go north? >> every single computer model we have is pulling it to the north. but the big question we have is where the center's going to go. that's why we try to communicate the edge of that cone. the landfall literally could be right o...

Difference in the eventual movement of these storms, literally thousands of parameters that we're trying to measure and put into computer models to be able to get these tracks. a small change can cause that forecast track to nudge a little bit. that's why there's so much uncertainty. and we spend a lot of time talking about the actual cone because you look at the last five years, and that's the forecast error possible with that track. we try to communicate these uncertainties, and it does happen especially when you're measuring thousands of parameters trying to get the model -- >> how certain ...

The atlantic basin. the forecast in case you're just joining us, 5:00 advisory from the national hurricane center. it will be one of the most powerful hurricanes they ever have seen in the bahamas. the forecast still calls for about 30 hours and 100-plus miles per hour in freeport. can you imagine being in your shelter, your safe room, family, kids, elderly for 30 straight hours? that's what they're going to go through until monday afternoon when the storm finally starts to pull away. notice uncertainty on the east coast of florida. we hope it will be over here farther into the ocean. but the ...

Had to nudge to the north. now it has an influence. tiny changes can make a big difference in the eventual movement of the storms. thousands of parameters that we're trying to measure and put into models to get the tracks. a small wobble or change can cause that forecast track to nudge a little bit. that's why there's so much uncertainty. we spent a lot of time talking about the actual cone. you look at the last five years and that's the forecast error possible with that tract. we try to communicate these uncertainties and it does possible, especially when you're measuring thousands of paramet...