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Change a little bit. that's why there's so much uncertainty. we talk about the actual cone. you look at the last five years, and that's the forecast. we try to communicate these uncertainties, and it does happen, especially when you're measuring thousands of parameters. when you get into the models, you can get these small changes. >> how certain are you it can go north? >> every single computer model we have is pulling it to the north. but the big question we have is where the center's going to go. that's why we try to communicate the edge of that cone. the landfall literally could be right o...

Difference in the eventual movement of these storms, literally thousands of parameters that we're trying to measure and put into computer models to be able to get these tracks. a small change can cause that forecast track to nudge a little bit. that's why there's so much uncertainty. and we spend a lot of time talking about the actual cone because you look at the last five years, and that's the forecast error possible with that track. we try to communicate these uncertainties, and it does happen especially when you're measuring thousands of parameters trying to get the model -- >> how certain ...

Had to nudge to the north. now it has an influence. tiny changes can make a big difference in the eventual movement of the storms. thousands of parameters that we're trying to measure and put into models to get the tracks. a small wobble or change can cause that forecast track to nudge a little bit. that's why there's so much uncertainty. we spent a lot of time talking about the actual cone. you look at the last five years and that's the forecast error possible with that tract. we try to communicate these uncertainties and it does possible, especially when you're measuring thousands of paramet...