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Otherwise, lover of the clintons james carville and republican strategist and someone maybe not quite as fond of the clintons mary matalin. thank you for joining us from the big easy. >> happy new year, boys. >> glad to see you side by side. want to get right into the race. mary, start with you about the republican race. who would you say is the front-runner or the front runners for the presidential nomination now? >> well, is that a trick question? >> no. straight forward. >> trump is the front-runner, but we have events in front of us, cruz will probably win iowa. the contest is for who come...

Conventional wisdom has been crazy. i'm not writing jeb off yet or christie off yet. we'll let this thing unfold. >> james, you've been a rubio man for much of this cycle. is he in your mind the front-runner? >> cruz, i thought, said about a year ago thought he was the most talented politician i've seen in a while. rubio just seemed to everybody like he was going to do it. rubio is like brazil. they say it's the nation of the future and always will be. it seems like that about rubio. he's the candidate of the future and always will be. he has to get in the present pretty soon. >> james, we jus...

Quinnipiac poll with senator ted cruz hot on his heels at 27%, and senator marco rubio a distant third. trump's popularity and his longevity in this race has stumped political insiders and purveyors of conventional wisdom. why has this person with no political experience, who has long been a symbol of he wealwed excess, who says outlandish and outright racist stuff why does he still lead the republican primary field after months and months and months. to find out, data found trump's supporters differ from the republican general electorate in a number of important surprisingly, more antiimmigra...

They show donald trump in first place in every one of the polls expect for the nbc news poll. you look at the florida poll in particular. and here you have marco rubio, the sitting senator losing by 11 points to donald trump. and jeb bush, an icon in that state of republican politics for years getting beaten by 15 points. he's lapping the field, especially these two florida stalwarts. >> of all the polls that should be red flags for jeb bush, that might be the biggest red flag right there. the governor, as you said, joe, the popular governor of his state, losing by donald trump in place where ...

Carson will somehow eventually fade away. bush, christy fiorina, kasich are all dead and rubio will rise and become the challenger to trump with cruz in the mix. i think that's the conventional wisdom. i think it's largely wrong in the sense that i don't think bush is dead, don't think christie's dead. i don't think kasich is necessarily dead. and i still don't think looking at these polls rubio still has a lot to prove. he's in a strong position. arguably the strongest position, but he's got a lot to prove. >> isn't that conventional wisdom, though, wishful thinking? how has that happened? we...