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arctic blast paralyzed iowa. >> we have record cold weather, snowfall, record everything. >> nobody can forecast what the turnout is going to be. are we in for an iowa surprise? plus, mike in the middle. >> this place is a joke. republ republican threaten to shut down the government. >> we've wasted an entire week. >> if he doesn't show up, i guess we'll just have to wrap it up without him and assume that these were bribes. >> plus, replacing george santos. >> people are concerned about safety, about the economy. >> how much are biden and trump shaping races where they're not on the ...

Campaigns. you can add desa-- we haven't s this kind of lead heading into the caucuses like this, a non incumbent candidate. if this is what the results look like monday night, donald trump's going to be well on his way to quashing the competition and moving towards this nomination. >> you're so right. this is finally the time for voters to vote. polls are polls. they are a snapshot in time. voters vote it matters here. just dig deeper in this final poll. about the undecided aspect. who is undecided here in this state. mind is made up. 68% of voters in iowa say that, iowa republican voters say...

Somewhat of a drag, but i think what you saw there is her not betting on trump's popularity helping her gang busters in that district. i think, look. nationally, how people feel about biden and trump really matters, but in this district, george santos and that legacy really matters and tom is a known name. so i think bouncing these two things is really interesting. is the standing of the two leading national candidates going to be important or are the specifics of that race going to be important? i'd be looking to how people think about the legacy of santos and people's recognition. >> but it'...

Support, it's not just the intensity of support inside the republican base, but who the support is coming from. >> which is why we see you're doing so well in new hampshire because independents can play in the primary, but looking at the calendar, has a lot more closed primaries where it's dominated by republicans and conservatives than the contests were dominated by moderates and independents. that is nikki haley's math challenge. >> just to dive deeper with nikki haley. about her support. the polls are talked about the jaw dropping nature of her unennewu unenthusiastic supporters. extremely ...

>> so there's no question that trump supporters are the most committed so they are perhaps the most likely to turn out. but some of them have to drive the farthest as well. supporters in rural areas. nikki haley is looking for the suburbs. weather now is part oof it but no one has more on the line than florida governor desantis who knows he needs a second place finish here. he's campaigning aggressively here today. >> he says he needs a second place finish. jeff, stay warm, my friend. we'll talk to you soon. my panel is with me now to break this down. margaret from axios, david chal, david, yo...