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Despite the recent rebound in the U.S. equity markets (the S&P 500 rose by over 9% in July), based upon our most recent model research, the U.S. economy still faces the threat of stagflation.

U.S. Equities: U.S. equities continued to stumble in June, delivering the worst first half of year performance for the S&P 500 in over 50 years.

The U.S. equity market outlook is a bit more neutral currently given the tug of war between the positive impact of the global economic rebound and concerns about whether robust economic growth will prove to be inflationary.

May 14, 2021 By DeFred Folts III, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Strategist, and Eric Biegeleisen, CFA, Managing Director, Research Portfolio Manager Equities: U.S. Equities: Major U.S. equity market indices continue to reach all-time highs as well as record levels of overvaluation by our measure. However, even at elevated valuations, monetary and fiscal stimulus remains supportive. In addition, high-yield credit spreads continue to tighten even further. Our research model is indicating that a potential regime shift in the global capital markets could be underway. This is supported by ...

April 14, 2021 By DeFred Folts III, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Strategist, and Eric Biegeleisen, CFA, Managing Director, Research Portfolio Manager Equities: U.S. Equities: Major U.S. equity market indices continue to reach all-time highs as well as record levels of overvaluation by our measure. However, even at elevated valuations, monetary and fiscal stimulus remains supportive. In addition, high-yield credit spreads remain narrow. A steepening global yield curve is also a positive development signaling higher growth prospects. U.S. equities also continue to benefit, at least in t...