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Advantage for republicans in the house. you know, again, we're waiting for races to be called, but they still have a narrow advantage here on saturday. a toss-up in the senate. most likely, when all the votes are counted, you'll end up with either 50 or 51 democrats, which is, you know, kisconsistent wit toss-up. people who are expecting the polls to be accurate are asking a little bit more than really any predictive measure can deliver. >> and notwithstanding what you've said, meaning, i'll accept everything you've offered so far, could there, nonetheless, have been some overcompensation for ...

You see that, you know, the survey researchers did their job. >> i think that the public and pundit class have disregard for margin of error. you know, you hear a race is 51-49, and you just go with the p person with the 51. i referenced 5:3838. 60/40, let's call it. there is a 40% chance it won't be, but we disregard that. >> yeah. i think that's exactly right. i mean, to someone who, you know, has a profession of probability, a professional poker player or something like that, 59% probability is different from a 50/50 probability. but for most people, 59%, that feels like a coin flip. that's...

What if there's a problem with people not responding? people were really worried about that. they were kind of second-guessing their own math and their own estimates. i think that the lesson of 2022 for everyone, me included, is trust the process. if you have a process and it is your, you know, analytical way of looking at the world and it says, hey, this is a toss-up, don't second-guess based on hype or vibes. go with your numbers. more often than that, that'll lead you in the right direction. >> i'm a 76ers fan, and that slogan has still not panned out for us. we're still waiting. thank you,...

If may be slightly tend more conservative. and that is just because if you look of the work of people like don hype, one thing we know is that conservatives value loyalty and authority a little bit more and people who tend to have liberal ideologies prefer the individual a little bit more. so you will see it from both because both belong to these tribes and the tribes will tell you what policies and also the tribes also help you determine what your moral campus is. and so you will see shifting around on sort of moral judgment as well. but, yeah, conservatives tend toward a little bit more resp...

If may be slightly tend more conservative. and that is just because if you look of the work of people like don hype, one thing we know is that conservatives value loyalty and authority a little bit more and people who tend to have liberal ideologies prefer the individual a little bit more. so you will see it from both because both belong to these tribes and the tribes will tell you what policies and also the tribes also help you determine what your moral campus is. and so you will see shifting around on sort of moral judgment as well. but, yeah, conservatives tend toward a little bit more resp...