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The effect of a carbon tax rise on Iceland's economy | en

Data and research on economy including economic outlooks, analysis and forecasts, country surveys, monetary and financial issues, public finance and fiscal policy and productivity., This paper studies the potential impact of higher carbon taxation - to reach the government’s emission targets by 2030 - on Iceland’s economy. The paper is divided into two parts. First, a DSGE modelling exercise suggests that the equivalent of an oil price hike of between 30% and 55% is needed to reach the 2030 target, implying a GDP decline of between 0.3% and 0.6% by 2030. The impact on inflation would be very small. Second, a panel regression for the fishing industry reveals that a 40-50% oil price hike would be sufficient to reduce the entire fishing fleet’s emissions by 10%, raising total factor costs for the fishing companies by 4-5%. Such a cost hike would hardly threaten the competitiveness of the fishing industry. Both approaches assume that a carbon tax rise would have no effect ....

Economic Outlooks , Analysis And Forecasts , Country Surveys , Financial Issues , Public Finance , Fiscal Policy , Environmental Economics , Dsge Modelling , Carbon Tax ,