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Seltzer. And it is good to have you. Top line numbers, Donald Trump still leads by a historic margin. Explain that, and explain the slippage that you are seeing . Well his numbers surely are ones to be proud of. Hes 48 of the first choice votes. But thats down from our december poll, which had him at 51 . And really, its only a few percentage points, but they are symbolic down there. He was above 50 , and that is hard for anybody to catch. He is now showing some slippage, some shrinkage as you say, and that may take some psychological toll on his campaign. Well let me ask you about the weather...

Hard for anybody to catch. he is now showing some slippage, some shrinkage as you say, and that may take some psychological toll on his campaign. >> well let me ask you about the weather, because the weather really is the more powerful force here. and it's going to affect every single candidate. who is at risk, mostly from the weather? >> well, all of us. i've been snowed in at home for two days, and therefore i am at risk, if i must say. i think you have to look at the enthusiasm factor. and while nikki haley has moved into second place since the first time that she's held that on her own, th...

Ask you, is it possible that ron desantis could actually end up coming out of iowa in second place? >> it is possible, jonathan. -- conducting this poll, the long term iowa pollster -- those numbers you ended up describing really to show some underlying weakness for nikki haley. and even though she ends up leaving run desantis, you know, you would rather be the candidate going into these frigid conditions with the more enthusiastic supporters. and again, as you mentioned, that 9% of extremely enthusiastic about haley does stand out when this is all about turnout, when it's all about intensity ...

Them. i have to think the enthusiasm is with democrats. a crazy thing to say, they just lost the house potentially but they feel like they have wind at their sails. so enthusiasm matters a lot in a special election they're always quirky but i have to feel like democrats have an edge going in now. >> mark, you've been drilling down on the data on special elections in the past to know how that enthusiasm makes a difference. stacey abrams has had a very successful get out the vote effort. she's transformed that state in just the past few years. what's your sense of the enthusiasm factor for georg...

Doubt the external energy, the external enthusiasm favored the democrats. it looks like it's clearly of the in these polls that has shifted. we've seen it in some other states as well. if you look at registered voters democrats do better. when you look at likely voters the republicans do better on every question, every horse race question, every issue question when you go from registered to likely because david, they have more enthusiasm. >> exactly. that is the enthusiasm factor playing out that we see. if you look at the people who just say abortion is their most important issue you see that...