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Could -- chris christie, that's an establishment candidate, jeb bush, establishment, kasich, if the vote could ever consolidate behind the four candidate, it would give donald trump the lead. she only ahead by 3 points. hillary clinton would very much like to win that first state. if sanders can win iowa, could he roll it to new hampshire? a note of cause here. 51% of bernie's supporters in iowa, they have never par t 'tis -- relying on those

Is this. marco rubio, you called him an establishment candidate. bush, kasich, establishment candidates. four of them bunched between 9 and 14%. if you add you will of those up together, you get 44%. that would be more than enough to beat donald trump but the problem is, no one has emerged from that pack. until and unless one of them succeeds in doing that, donald trump is going to continue to lead in new hampshire. >> steve kornacki breaking it down for us on a monday morning. thanks, as always, sir. we're going to take a quick break. when we come back, new details on the capture of el chap...

Momentum. let me ask this. if he wins in iowa or new hampshire and heads south, it's very difficult then, but don't you start seeing a lot of the other candidates fall off and you end up with a narrower race? couldn't he get clipped if becomes a three or four-person race? >> yes, if you have a cruz/trump/kasich race or cruz, trump, rubio, the so-called establishment candidate is going to get a lot of votes, but you have these winner-take-all primaries early in the republican process, so if trump is leading going into a lot of those, he's going to wrack up a lot of delegates before they get to ...

They're looking for toughness. tough talk. beat hillary clinton. be tough against terrorism. the fascinating part, we're talking about cruz and trump. no question at the top of the pack now for republicans. and the establishment is more than a little nervous. in your piece say that said michael bloomberg said it's going to fracture. the subplot who emerges as establishment candidate. you have john kasich, jeb bush in this lane. chris christie and marco rubio having a "hello." >> this guy has been spoofing every victory he's had in his life. that's the kind of person we want to put on the stage...

Historically there have been three tickets out of iowa, if cruz seems to be on a path to win and trump is in some ways trying to figure out where he falls, that leaves room for an establishment candidate. you remember mitt romney on caucus night was declared the winner in iowa. there are a chunk of what -- i would not say moderate voters, but people looking for a centrist consensus republican candidate. it's not as though every republican voter in iowa is an evangelical. so that's kind of where the initial fight is taking place right now. and that's partly because if rubio does get that third ...