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Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary.

3.30 Starting with the overperformers (players whose YTD stats outpace their ROS projection), there are a couple of “nothing to see here” guys, for very different reasons. Adam Plutko is a semi-interesting bulk reliever, but his HR/FB rate is going to regress heavily and while he’ll continue to be useful for the Orioles, when his ERA matches his xFIP (5.18 as of now), he won’t put up enough P/IP to be valuable in Ottoneu. At the other end of the spectrum, Corbin Burnes is probably not going to continue pitching like Greg Maddux with better strikeouts, but he’s an ace and he’ll sti...

39.47% Joey Lucchesi – The long-awaited Lucchesi breakout is here! Finally! Well, kinda. The Mets are using Lucchesi more as an opener than a starter – he has made two starts for three innings each, plus a two-inning relief appearance. Over those eight innings, he has a 6.75 ERA but a 1.45 FIP and 2.98 xFIP, thanks to a 26.5% K%-BB%. Also, they sent him to the alternate site. They don’t need a 5th starter until next week, so maybe this is a temporary demotion because he isn’t needed? Hard to say. For now, there is no reason to add Lucchesi, but he’s worth having on watchlist. His v...

April 1, 2021 Bold prediction season is the best. Just a chance to lay it on the line and lean in on the guys I am most excited about (or most unexcited about). For my bold predictions, going to go with an Ottoneu focus. And let’s get right to it. 1. Nick Castellanos is a top 10 FanGraphs Points OF. His Depth Charts projection pegs him at a .337 wOBA, 32nd highest among OF. The market likes him a bit more – his $19.50 average salary in first-year FanGraphs Points leagues is 24th among OF. I think those are both too low. I was going to boldly predict a .360 wOBA, but THE BAT X has him at ...

January 27, 2021 In ottoneu (or really any keeper/dynasty format) you generally want to keep players with surplus – guys whose production will be worth more than the cost to keep them – and cut players without. Of course, it isn’t always that simple. With less than a week before the Ottoneu keeper deadline, we’ll look at three players who I am cutting or trading, despite their projected surplus. For the purposes of this article, when I talk about a player’s surplus, I am talking about value minus cost where: Value = The value provided in Justin’s surplus calculator, which is based...