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Clinton leading 45% to trump's 42%. let's go beyond that to the so-call ed prediction models which take state and national polls and take it through thousands, in fact millions and millions of simulations. when the "new york times" does this, it finds mrs. clinton's chances of winner are 84% versus trump's 16%. it's competitor, fivethirtyeight.com, has clinton at 64% and trump at 36%. we'll try to make sense of this with harry enten, and nate cohn. nate, you wrote an article, i think it was two days ago saying clinton has a lead but it is narrow and within the margin of error. that was a three...

Getting -- democrats get 75% or 80%, then that really reshapes the map in 2016 and 2020. i think it is a long-term thing. but the moment that texas, for example, becomes a swing state again, which it was way back in the 1960s, i mean, that's a real game changer. democrats wouldn't have a single kind of major large state that they could, you know, count on as being safe anymore. and that creates real problems electorally. but the long term is the long term and the short term is a lot of anger out there and the arizona law was popular. >> nate silver, founder of fivethirtyeight.com. you can also...

80%, then that really reshapes the map in 2016 and 2020. i think it is a long-term thing. but the moment that texas, for example, becomes a swing state again, which it was way back in the 1960s, i mean, that's a real game changer. democrats wouldn't have a single kind of major large state that they could, you know, count on as being safe anymore. and that creates real problems electorally. but the long-term is the long-term and the short-term there's a lot of anger out there and the arizona law was popular. >> nate silver, founder of fivethirtyeight.com. you can also check him out at "the new ...

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