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Obama 51% to 45%. in comparison, real clear politics average shows a dead heat with obama leading by one tenth of a point. joining us, frank newport. how do you explain the fact your poll is so out of line with seven others national polls which show obama with a small lead or romney with a lead of just one point? >> well, there are many different explanation. we spend most of our time looking at our own method doling, how we do it. it's a seven day rolling average of the one you quoted. a large sample size. 3500 registered voters, 2700 likely voters in the sample. we don't spend time looking a...

It's time four or sunday group. brit hume, fox news senior political analyst. liz more lan tess and -- >> before we get to libya, what do you make of the lead story in the "new york times" today the u.s. and iran agreed in principle to one-on-one talks after the election about iran's nuclear program? >> i don't know what to make of it. they agreed to talks and it was all set or the suggestion it was all set and then there was -- the white house said no, no, we haven't agreed in any final way to anything. so i think it remains to be seen. obviously the question is the one that senator graham ra...

We've even romney move out to the 51-45 seven day average. that's what we're showing among likely voters nationally. registered voters is closer to even. >> you had a poll this week of 12 battleground states showing romney leading by four points in the 12 battleground states. 50-46. the gender gap among women was gone, obama leading by 49% to 48. most polls show obama leadingly more in the battleground states with a bigger lead among women. >> that was a couple weeks ago when that field work was done so that's ancient history. things change week-to-week. nationally now, in the large sample pol...

Pointellist painting let me explain it, states in red are romney leading, and there are 230 states. and the blue states are for president obama with 201 electoral states and now there more is more gray states which are a toss up or undecided. what do you make of the map and that the number of states that are too close to call is growing, not decreasing? >> what is most striking is holy cow, romney has a slight lead in electoral votes, the first time that has occurred. that confirms the trend that has been evident since the first debate the question really, is the lead, small or large, dependin...

Whether obama should pull out of florida and there was a story in the "new york times" about that, this weekend, so, in that sense, the midwest really is where this is going to be won. although romney just has a path to victory without ohio he would like to win ohio because it is low low making it very close without that. obama has had a lead there. he it will is ahead but not by as much, but every poll shows obama ahead in ohio and that makes it hard are for romney. >> what do romney and obama need to do in the final 16 days? >> two private polls the last few days have romney down one in ohio...