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Debate. it's down to technically, four-person race. i think it's a mistake for him to skip that race. it's inconsistent with his strategy. i thought with the money he is spending in georgia with advertising that he wanted to try and take you into the gingrich down. that is not the way to do it. newt is going to be very strong. >> i've just heard cnn cancelled the debate. they cancelled the debate. >> wow! given that, given that, it was going to be good for newt if they didn't cancel the debate. it's still good because you want to know why, georgia one of those states will rally back around new...

Conservatism and in order to beat the president, no longer cover political story the entire primary season is the fact the president's approval numbers, not skyrocketing up are on a very clear ascent. he hovered around 40% approval from july to december. he is up in the high 40s. he is not somebody who is going to have a cake walk to re-election but he is clearly in the range where he is starting to look a lot more like where george w. bush was in 2004, you know, as opposed to, you know, as opposed to being, you know, where george w. bush was in 2006/2007. i think plenty of time to be positive...

Hitting gingrich, the real question for romney is can he project a positive reason for conservatives to vote for him. sand on far at least, i don't hear anything coming out of the romney campaign that is that. he's got to find a message that connects can conservative voters at the same time as he takes gingrich down. he has to get the positive half right if he's going to be able to win in florida and beyond. >> all right. john heilemann, phase two of your birthday president comes in about 20 minutes when you get to be on "morning joe" for three hours after this. other news, senator rand paul...

Would increase their taxes by 8 7,000. romney down by 82,000. and gingrich down by 340,000. and if you go to the very last chart and you see what this does to federal revenues, obama would increase them by $154 billion, and romney cuts them by, and it would pay for your part d medicare and then some. >> seven years. wow. >> john heilemann, how -- how much do people pay attention to this on the campaign trail? i know, obviously "the wall street journal" editorial page, a lot of other conservative activities pay close attention to this. on the campaign trail how much do they? >> in terms of the ...

arkansas. and tornado watches still up in a number of places. cnn meteorologist rob marciano, i heard you back there. can't keep up with the board and everything else going on. what's the latest? >> what's eerie about this situation is that there's a path of the tornado took is a similar path to the one that hit them in april. north of tuscaloosa and northern birmingham. not similar results but still two fatalities. and i want to show you the latest on where this is all going. the most damage has been north of birmingham. and center point, paradise valley. this area here about, i don...