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Examine India's bond market to read its economic tea leaves

Examine India’s bond market to read its economic tea leaves
Stock buoyancy doesn’t reflect the real state of India’s economy
(Photo: Mint)Premium
Andy Mukherjee
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Consumers are feeling cheated at the gas station. Investors are returning empty-handed from government bond auctions. The Indian state is struggling to make its fiscal math work without short-changing the first group or disappointing the second. Each of these discontents could curtail a still-unfinished recovery from the massive covid disruption. But you wouldn’t see any of those concerns reflected in the stock market, which is floating on $85 billion of liquidity pumped into the banking system in less than two years. At the height of the optimism around the 2014 election that brought Narendra Modi to power, the Nifty 50 index peaked at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23. The multiple is currently at 36 and rising.

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