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The Atlantic Making yourself consider contrary opinions will improve your thinking. 6:00 AM ET FPG/Hulton Archive/Getty In 1906, the British statistician and polymath Francis Galton attended a country fair at which the attendees were invited to estimate the weight of an ox. Out of curiosity, Galton borrowed the cards on which the guesses were written, took them home, and ran the numbers. To his surprise, the average of the 787 entries turned out to be almost exactly the precise weight of the animal. It was more accurate than even the individual estimates of butchers and farmers, who presumabl...

Executive editor of random house and pulitzer prize winning historian jon meacham, bestle issing historian doris concerns goodw goodwin. author of an upcoming biography about eisenhower, evan thomas. >> doris, obviously lbj, vote fam, one of the great -- vietnam, one of the great examples of how a war can shatter a presidency. >> or on the other hand a war provides a president with a chance to summon the nation to a great cause and a lot of our presidents have felt without a war, they'll never be great. so that -- theodore roosevelt is a few one of the near great presidents because of his pers...