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As a child I lived through the Cuban missile crisis, when the United States and the Soviet Union came within days or possibly hours of all-out global nuclear war. Since then, I’ve expected that nuclear weapons would be used one day but assumed that this might be between two smaller nuclear powers, possibly in Asia. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, however, a nuclear war starting in Europe seems more probable. Organisations tracking the risk of nuclear war, including the Pugwash conferences and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists , regard this risk as greater now than ever.12 In the past year or two, the …

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