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kinds of upsets the tournament produces leads a lot of bracket pickers astray. Most tournaments have a small number of big surprises and a heaping handful of middling “upsets” that aren’t that hard to call out ahead of time. But these more boring non-upset “upsets” are where real value lies in a bracket pool, because, again, there are a lot of them. If you pick a No. 15 seed to beat a No. 2 seed and you’re right, then great! But that won’t usually happen, and even if you do land such a whale, you won’t win your pool unless you get a lot more games right.