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By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLCThe February USDA report is usually considered less important than most other monthly reports but this one offered some surprises. Here are some report observations and highlights.CornThe market was hoping for some big adjustments but were disappointed when the corn carryout was only decreased 50 million bushels. The average trade guess had expected a drop of nearly 150 million bushels. The
By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC Market volatility is expected to continue for quite some time. Much of the 2020 U.S. corn and bean crop has been sold and China’s demand remains impressive. Even South American farmers have sold 50% more of their new crop beans than usual by this point. Therefore, many are uneasy about shorting the market as it’s unknown who is left to sell into this rally. Corn China purchased a lot of corn recently, so the market now expects upcoming USDA reports to show increased export values and lowered carryout. Corn may need the price to rally to help...
By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC As the holidays approach, the market continues to watch South American weather and Chinese purchases. The Brazilian bean crop was planted later than usual, and precipitation has been lower than normal, but it could still turn out an average size crop. Argentina has been dry as was expected with La Niña present. Crucial crop development will be taking place next month. The export pace over the next couple of months to China will play a pivotal role in price directions. Recently I set basis on 100% of my 2020 bean crop. With the news of low U.S. ca...
By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC The market will be closely watching South America’s weather for the next 45 days. While there is weather premium currently in place, widespread dryness throughout the Southern Hemisphere will need to continue for corn to trade above $4.50 and beans above $12. Grain marketing is challenging because everyone wants to sell at the top of the market; but no one knows when that will be. Some farmers hold on the entire year, waiting for a huge rally. However, many farmers sell incrementally during rallies to reduce risk, while leaving some crop availab...