Whether economic sanctions against Russia have real effects has been increasingly called into question. This column suggests that changes in e-commerce can demonstrate whether and how the 2022 Western sanctions contributed to de-linking Russia from the West. An analysis of trends in cross-border international online retail based on digitally recorded daily transactions data
As relations between the West and Russia deteriorate, the imposition of a complete trade embargo by Allies on Russia appears increasingly likely. Using computable general equilibrium modelling, this column explores the short- to medium-term economic effects of such an Allied trade embargo. It finds that Russia would likely sustain sizable losses of upwards of 14% of real GDP.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the US, Europe, and many other countries imposed new economic sanctions on Russia. This column assesses the economic effects of these sanctions using a structural vector auto-regression model of the Russian economy. The findings suggest that industrial production, consumption, and investment will all decline, and that
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