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>> and it's difficult to sit here and defend obama and being like the only one on the talk show, i'll take it because i just see these numbers went up and up and up and his programs working more and more and more and i see the republicans falling apart. and his approval numbers the first time. 50% is an important number to get to and that's 50-46. and that's a big change from three or four months ago, getting wetter and better, you've got to look at the time line. >> bob, and it's still within the margin of error of plus or minus 4% so how can it be considered statistically stig. >> i'm agreei...

Blessed with an audience that knows his message already. it's like they play the screen door slams and they all know. they just know he gives his short-hand bullet points about key issues and they all know it. it is still the case that a lot of people in the room at that event yesterday, young people, people from out of state, people who don't know how to caucus, so the ceiling he's hit is in part because of his message particularly on foreign policy misses the mark with a lot of republicans and also because there have been a lot of negative ads against him. >> he can still win though, right? ...

Blessed with an audience that knows his message already. it's like they play the screen door slams and they all know. they just know he gives his short-hand bullet points about key issues and they all know it. it is still the case that a lot of people in the room at that event yesterday, young people, people from out of state, people who don't know how to caucus, so the ceiling he's hit is in part because of his message particularly on foreign policy misses the mark with a lot of republicans and also because there have been a lot of negative ads against him. >> he can still win though, right? ...

Among republican voters, people who are republicans and will go to the caucus mitt romney leads ron paul by 11 points. but among people who aren't republicans, those who are coming just to vote for ron paul, those who are from outside the process ron paul has a huge lead, he's at 38% of the vote for all nonrepublican whose will participate in this. a better turn out by regular republicans helps mitt romney, a lower turn out by that group helps ron paul. the other big news here, rick santorum. a couple weeks ago he was at 4%, a week ago he was at 10%, now he is at 16. he is clearly moving on up...

Mitt romney and newt gingrich. plus or minus 4, that's a tie across the board. gingrich, surging in most pol polls. steve you spent time with the speaker. your take? >> interesting to listen to him talk about his personal baggage. i interviewed three dozen people in south carolina. i was stunned how many people are willing to look past that and say what he has done, he has done. he said he asked for forgiveness. he has moved on and we shall, too. in the course of talking to the people in south carolina, i would say 90% of them said in the first sentence, he is intelligent. maybe the smartest p...