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NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has this year adopted a new forecasting strategy and more sophisticated comprehensive scientific model to come out with monthly forecasts during the monsoon season from May onwards, making it possible for farmers, government authorities, disaster managers and other users to plan their activities in much better ways. The new dynamical model was also used to generate the first stage southwest monsoon forecast on Friday, predicting normal rainfall in the country during June-September period. It also for the first time released a map at this stage, showing state-wise probability rainfall forecast for the 2021 southwest monsoon season. This map gives a broad idea as to how the monsoon is likely to perform in states/UTs during the four-month rainy season. ....
The IMD’s forecast shows that the 2021 monsoon will be the third consecutive year (2019-2021) of good rainfall. India had earlier three consecutive years of rainfall in 1996, 1997 and 1998. NEW DELHI: Bringing good news for India’s overall economy, the country’s national weather forecaster, India Meteorological Department (IMD), on Friday predicted overall ‘normal’ monsoon rainfall during June-September period across the country. It said the probability of the 2021 monsoon being ‘normal’ was 40% while there was 21% chance of it being ‘above normal’. “Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 98% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of +/- 5%,” said Madhavan Rajeevan, secretary, ministry of earth sciences (MoES) while making the IMD’s long range forecast for the 2021 southwest monsoon public. ....