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Here's the track of the system. it's going to move steadily west and then slow down, hang out just east of the bahamas and then according to this track take it up the coast. there's a 520-mile wide what we call cone of uncertainty, kate. it's still the east coast is in play. now, let's take a look at the models. different modeling we look at. look at the variety of these different models. what we call spaghetti strings all the way 650-mile width between the different model runs, some right over southern new jersey, others into the delmarva peninsula. look at the rainfall for the next three day...

Makes it a category 1 hurricane. now the latest model runs are expected to bring into that category 1 hurricane even sooner so just off of the carolinas as early as tomorrow. that is the concern here as the system continues to make its way up the eastern seaboard. closest point it likely could reach is right off the outer banks there, right around nag's head. could see a potential landfall in that region but right now the consensus is hanging barely offshore and quickly exiting off to the east, kind of moving away from the shore line as it picks up with that jet stream and then weakening. once...

Impacts. you're either getting hammered by a major storm or tropical storm force winds. we can't tell you which it is about this point. everybody has to prepare for the worst. >> shepard: what is the thinking where the folks at the national hurricane center know? >> we start to watch trends in model guidance. so here's the models. i hesitate in showing you this. they all go in this direction. all of them make a right-hand turn. the latest runs are all staying a little to the east side of florida here. that's good news if you're on the west side. but you could be in the eye wall there with majo...