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In view of the above, the southwest monsoon is likely to be delayed by about a week with a margin window of 3 days. The initial progress as such may also be sluggish. Sowing operations over South Peninsula to start with, have to take a judicious call.
The mainland onset of Monsoon has a standard deviation of 7 days. In the last 10 years, the earliest arrival was on 29th May in 2018 & 2022 and the most delayed on 08th June 2019.
Onset time of southwest monsoon is drawing closer. Predictions are for before time arrival over mainland Kerala. Monsoon arrived over North Andaman Sea and Bay Islands on 16thMay, about a week before the due date.