Forecasts need to have error bars
Richard Rosenfeld in the most recent Criminologist published a piece about forecasting national level crime rates. People complain about the FBI releasing crime stats a year late, academics are worse; Richard provided “forecasts” for 2021 through 2025 for an article published in late 2023. Even ignoring the stalecasts that Richard provided – these forecasts had/have…
Source: andrewpwheeler.com