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Thank you for being here. >> thank you, rachel. >> did i get anything wrong there? >> no, good. >> iowa can predict new hampshire and new hampshire can predict the nominee? >> it's kind of like chaos theory where a butterfly flaps its wings in des moines and it revush rates to concord. it's a tenuous predictor of future success. >> looking at the results heading into that, with that caveat that it may tell us nothing other than iowa. what do you see as the state of the polls right now for tomorrow? >> you really do, i think, have very nearly a three-way tossup where mitt romney leads in the pl...

It out is nate silver. author of the 538 electoral politics blog at "the new york times." thank you for being here. >> thank you, rachel. >> did i get anything wrong there? >> no, good. >> iowa can predict new hampshire and new hampshire can predict the nominee? >> it's kind of like chaos theory where a butterfly flaps its wings in des moines and it revush rates to concord. it's a tenuous predictor of future success. >> looking at the results heading into that, with that caveat that it may tell us nothing other than iowa. what do you see as the state of the polls right now for tomorrow? >> you...

Thank you for being here. >> thank you, rachel. >> did i get anything wrong there? >> no, good. good history lesson too. >> iowa can predict new hampshire and new hampshire can predict the nominee? >> it's kind of like chaos theory where a butterfly flaps its wings in des moines and it reverberates to concord. especially the republican side, it's a tenuous predictor of future success. >> looking at the results heading into that, with that caveat, that it may tell us nothing other than iowa, what do you see as the state of the polls right now for tomorrow? >> you really do, i think, have very n...

Thank you for being here. >> thank you, rachel. >> did i get anything wrong there? >> no, good. >> iowa can predict new hampshire and new hampshire can predict the nominee? >> it's kind of like chaos theory where a butterfly flaps its wings in des moines and it revush rates to concord. it's a tenuous predictor of future success. >> looking at the results heading into that, with that caveat that it may tell us nothing other than iowa. what do you see as the state of the polls right now for tomorrow? >> you really do, i think, have very nearly a three-way tossup where mitt romney leads in the pl...

It out is nate silver. author of the 538 electoral politics blog at "the new york times." thank you for being here. >> thank you, rachel. >> did i get anything wrong there? >> no, good. >> iowa can predict new hampshire and new hampshire can predict the nominee? >> it's kind of like chaos theory where a butterfly flaps its wings in des moines and it revush rates to concord. it's a tenuous predictor of future success. >> looking at the results heading into that, with that caveat that it may tell us nothing other than iowa. what do you see as the state of the polls right now for tomorrow? >> you...