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there are growing concerns for the joe biden camp as former president obama according to "the washington post" has pushed for a more aggressive campaign. warning about the risk that joe could lose to donald trump. you can't blame him for being worried as the latest polling average shows trump edging ahead of biden in a hypocritical matchup as you can see 46 to 44. what does his own party think? let's talk to a couple of democrats. joining us right now, screen left. "the five" co-host and former democratic congressman harold ford jr. along with former democratic new york state senator david car luchey. guys, good morning to you. harold, it's not surprising. sounds like they ha lunch couple months ago. being reported that joe said you know what? you need somebody at your campaign headquarters who can make decisions. right now they have to go through the white house they weren't very nimble. >> first, thanks for having me on and happy new year. david and i have known each
victory new hampshire. look, we've had a lot of surprises before. i went back and looked about a week before iowa, in the last two campaigns. years ago, donald trump is leading by six points of the polling average in iowa. he lost. four years before that, rick santorum, who won the iowa caucuses, wasn't sixth place in the polling average in iowa a week before the caucuses. sixth place. and he won. new hampshire, similarly, lots of surprises in new hampshire. going back both on the republican side in the democratic side. we all remember barack obama winning iowa in 2008, riding the surge of momentum, only to get crushed in new hampshire by hillary clinton and a victory nobody saw coming. john mccain finished fourth or fifth in iowa in the 2000. and then won the new hampshire primary. if primaries can be really volatile, right now, the game play for trump's be down desantis in iowa. and then take it to haley in new hampshire. and then it over. we'll see if it succeeds.
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right now? >> it is because the guy who is not on stage tonight is donald trump. and look at this national polling average. donald trumpt 57%. ron desantis 40 points behind him. when trump says i am not debating these guys because they are not in my league, he passes the fact check. he is telling the truth when it comes to the polling numbers. if you look at tit this way, we are going to talk about that in a legal context tomorrow. never has a candidate with this big of a lead in history at this point in the race been beaten the. he is the faraway frontrunner. the other candidates trying to defy logic, history, math. it's a longer than long shot to catch that. >> it's a crowded field. do you see deja vu to 2016? >> absolutely. trump is much more powerful. first insert the caveats. there is long way to go. a lot could happen. a lot of trump legal drama could change this. another debate in a month.
the next election that can win. >> joining me now, jonathan, editor of the bulwark, and tom ethical. staff writer at the atlantic. i was looking forward to this conversation, folks, this is gonna be fun, jonathan those polls out there showing the gop nomination is trump's to lose. but the general election is a different ball game here, so what is your thoughts on the republican base understanding that sticking with trump actually means they're not gonna win against biden next year? >> michael, i don't know that that's what it means, because this is the terrifying part, will hurd makes the argument that the reason republicans have to move away from trump's because they nominate trump they will lose, and that would be nice to think, i would like to think that nominating a guy who's been indicted twice and will be indicted again, would lead to him losing, but right now trump is running five points ahead of where he was in 2020 against biden, he's, if you look at the polling average,
against biden next year. >> michael, i don't know that's what it means. i mean, this is the terrifying part, right? will hurd makes the argument that the reason republicans have to move away from trump's because if they nominate trump, he will lose. that would be nice to think. i would like to think that nominating a guy who's been indicted twice will be indicted again would lead to him losing. right, now trump is running five points ahead of where he was in 2020 against biden. look at the polling average. he is right about even with biden. i am absolutely not convinced that even a trump under criminal indictment is a surefire loser against biden. because the electoral college, i think he's got like a 35 to 40% floor on his chances, no matter what. and that's what's really scary. what we need, we need guys like will herr to say, hey, the reason not to vote against trump is because he's dangerous for america. don't support trump because
tulsi gabbard, they are sothey wedded to the party and the system that they don't allow thn interloper to get in there. the polling just to finish that i think is a very serious issue for democrats and we see with rfk junior and cornell west. another thing that is interesting in south carolina donald trump at 48 and the son and daughter in south carolina, tim scott and nikki haley, you combine them and they reach halo of trump support and south carolina. the second thing ron desantis on april 1 the polling average had trump at 30, desantis at 30,t 30 trump at 45.-for fast-forward trump is over 50 in all polls and ron desantis is under 20.
too annoying to assemble you wish you would have just order tacos. the articles going to quote another rival campaign saying give barely raised any money outside of what you have given to yourself. they do not think you have a long-term play, do you? >> absolutely, shannon. we are on the rise doing the selection. i'm the one a candidate in this race is actually leading us to something. to our vision of what it means to be an american. that is a resident of photos across the country. i began and march of 0.0% in the polls. look at the national polling average now i'm consistently pulling at third nationally. that is ahead of even the first debate when many people in this country have not yet gotten to know who i am. so i think we are on the same trajectory or ahead of where donald trump was in 2015. i am nationally pulling against ahead of a former vice president and numerous governors and u.s. senators. i think we are just getting warmed up as a grassroots across
that, they killed bernie sanders in the crib. tulsi gabbard. they are so wedded to the party and system that they don't allow the interloper to get in there. on the polling just to finish the i think that is a very serious issue for democrats. we see with rfk junior and cornell west. another thing that is interesting, and south carolina you have donald trump at 48 and a son and daughter in south carolina, tim scott nikki haley, you combine them and they reach half of trump's important south carolina. the second thing, ron desantis on april 1, the real clear polling average had trump at 30, desantis at 30 and trump 45. fast-forward today, trump is over 50 and all polls and ron desantis is over 20.
voters. there seems to be a new race for second place. and iowa to him scott is five points away from ron desantis and in south carolina, no surprise wormer governor nikki haley is in second place with 14%. how about the republican candidate the politico said is about to have a moment. here is vivek ramaswamy on "fox news sunday". >> we are on the rise to win this election. on the one candidate in this race who is leading us to something, to our vision of what it means to be an american. that is resonating with voters across the country. i begin at march at 0.0% in the polls, look at the national polling average, consistently pulling third nationally and that is ahead of the first debate when many people in this country have not yet gotten to know who i am. i think were on the same trajectory or ahead of where donald trump was in 2015. alicia: voters weighing in on the first primary debate that is one month from today. trump has said he won't attend.