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Now we actually do forecasting ourselves on our open hazards.com website. we've done some calculations that you can go there and see. i've written a blog about that that says there's a chance, 4 or 5% chance a year of 6-magnitude earthquake within 60 miles of downtown and 30% chance within three years. that is still not certain within the sense we don't know for sure those things are going to happen. all we can do is calculate probabilities. bill: northridge was 20 years ago this year,. >> i that's correct. bill: 19984. that was a different fault line in southern california, am i right about t...

The literature, but on a website called open hazards.com. we are actually going to establish an advance, i think, in earthquake forecasting technology and time. the way we do that is by counting small earthquakes we expect a six for every 1 house. the technique is to couldn't the number of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake, and then you can develop probability laws that tell you what the chance is of a larger earthquake in any given time. >> do you think we'll be able to narrow that down to, what, hours, days, weeks, months? i mean -- >> probably not hours or days, but i think,...

Time. gregg: any way to know how large? >> well, not exactly. that's not an exact science yet. we actually do forecasting on our own web side called open hazards.com. what we're talking about is a triggering probability. another possibility, by the way, is that this mexicali earthquake occurred on the southern extension of the el señor fault, less active than the san andreas fault but still very active. gregg: and what does that mean? very quickly, i'm almost out of time. >> if that thing goes, then there's going to be major trouble in los angeles. there was a study done by the firm risk mana...

And i guess this one particular volcano is pretty dangerous because it caused floods the size of the amazon, sent boulders as big as houses tumbling down into valleys and roads, and the last major eruption was 1918. floods followed in as little as an hour. how do you handicap it that we're going to see katla explode? >> well, you know, we spend a lot of time trying to understand risk, and there are various places like the santa fe institute in new mexico where we're interested in risk. we also have our own little company, open hazards.com, where we try to evaluate the risks from earth earthqua...