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The most important release today will be the US December CPI. We look for a modest uptick in headline inflation to +0.2% m/m SA (Nov +0.1% m/m) driven mostly by less negative energy contribution while core inflation is set to remain relatively stable at +0.3% m/m SA (Nov +0.3% m/m). The main focus will be on underlying components of inflation, especially on the services sector.
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Today's main event is ECB meeting where the Governing Council is widely expected keep rates on hold. This would be the first time of no change in policy rate since June last year. Since September, inflation and growth data have been broadly in line with expectations and taking into account the clear guidance from ECB, this clearly supports the case for pausing. We expect Lagarde to acknowledge a discussion on advancing the PEPP reinvestments during the Q&A part of the press conference, thereby signalling a tightening bias, albeit with some optionality still in its communication. Marke...
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland The higher for longer rates mantra continues to reverberate around markets, a... -September 26, 2023 at 12:30 am EDT - MarketScreener
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland -September 26, 2023 at 12:30 am EDT - MarketScreener