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As the art of it is wrong because it's such a topsy turvy time we don't know or understand who's really going to show out and who's not going to turn out, right. if you told me two months ago that the democratic -- that the electorate in virginia would be 13 points, you know, plus 13 points democratic, i would say well that's an outlier. i don't think that's going to happen. >> yeah. >> but that's what you had. so it depends on who turns out. what you're hearing on alabama is you have a lot of energy on both sides, right. and people are talking about we've seen -- we've never seen this sort of...

Rumny commands a lot of respective among conservatives. steve bannon picked a fight tonight, and it'll be interesting to see what it means for the future of the party. >> since your a number guys here, do you trust any of the polling you see coming out of alabama? >> well, here is the tough part, brian, is that it's hard to judge or this is the art of it, right, what kind of electorate is going to turn out. the polling isn't wrong as much as the art of the is wrong. at such a topsy-turvy time, we don't know who's going to stay in and who's not going to turn out. if you had told me two months a...

Plus 13. he has more than doubled his support in iowa in just the last month. he is right behind donald trump right now. you look at ben carson, ben carson had been surging a month ago. he's now down 10 points. so the race really has reshuffled a bit in iowa. what is exactly driving that? take a look. we can look inside the numbers here. first of all, evangelical christians make up more than half, they make up about 60% of the republican electorate in iowa. huge important group in iowa. well, look at this. ben carson had been dominating with evangelicals in iowa. he's lost a lot of support the...

Polls, but he still has considerable strength. again, if you look at the real clear politics average of the polls in iowa, carson has a nine-point lead in iowa, which votes first, in just 96 days, so that's good for carson, but iowa's history is that it picks somebody, but then new hampshire and south carolina tend to actually pick the republican nomin nominee. in those states, trump is plus 16 in new hampshire right now, on average, plus 13 in south carolina on average. the question is, as he drops a little bit in the national polls, as he drops in iowa, will there be an effect in new hampshi...

>> americans from coast to coast casting their ballots and rejecting president obama's policies. >> with me the buck stops right here at my desk. and so whenever the head of the party doesn't do well, i have got to take responsibility for it. >> it was a total republican landslide. the g.o.p. adding nine seats in the senate plus 13 more in the house. and republican governors rising to power across the country. even in blue states like maryland, illinois, even massachusetts. now that republicans are in charge. what are republicans actually going to do? >> we can have real change in washington. ...