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Between '16 and '18 and now it's a bigger shift. so it's a trend. it started really from the moment that he was inaugurated with the women's march. the other thing i'd have to say you have to look internally what's happening. college educated women have moved dramatically to the democrats. we also now are seeing softening on white blue collar women and that's been a strong source of support. there's no way you get to plus 18 if you're not doing okay with white blue collar women. >> first of all, if you go back to the number, he won by nine points. 8 points with white women is about where repub...

Next figure here. this is interesting. everyone says there's excitement in the democratic field. the president is unpopular. you think there's a different way to look at this? >> so far we've concentrated on this 2020 campaign as it being a referendum on the president of the united states. he isn't very popular. a candidate only at a negative 11 percentage point net approval rating would be in really big trouble. but he does actually have to face off against someone in the general election. democrats have to choose someone. and with the exception of joe biden up here at plus 18 percentage poin...

Need to pull over some trump voters and there are persuadable voters. senior citizens going for plus 18 in 2016 to plus 2 in 2018. watch "fox news" and also vote for republicans. if you can eat away and get one, maybe two points pulled over to your side, that's a benefit. you lose nothing by going on "fox news." actually, you can use it as a win and say i'm not afraid to standing up to "fox news" and i can take on donald trump. if you can't go on "fox news," you can't go after donald trump. >> there are a lot of people that point to chris wallace and shep smith. >> very fair minded. >> i do ag...

Pennsylvania, new york, new jerseyinia. democrats will get eight, 10, mocrats could pick up couple here, more t a couple there if it's a blue wave. but what if it isn't and they only get one or two of these. they don't get any of these or they get one or two. you get out to california and the democrats are, say, plus 17, plus 18. they need plus 23. then these districts out in california become absolutely critical. ten districts we view as competitive. only one is a democrat. in my opinion republican districts in play. zen of these nine carried by hill kri clinton. what if the democrats don't h...

Quinnipiac poll, democrats plus 15. monmouth, democrats plus 15. merritt, democrats plus 13. public strategies, plus 12. voter saying they're likely to vote for democrats in the mid-term elections. if you're a republican and looking at that, how is that going to change what you do for the republican agenda in 2019 -- 2018? >> well, you might try to get a lot done quickly, because you may not be in charge after 2018, but it probably also will encourage some republicans to retire, who were on the edge about whether to stay on or leave. it may also affect the donors. sometimes donors decide to sa...