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Through his other dealings. i want to get to the panel now for their thoughts. brit? >> bret: something should be said about the polls. lot of us were troubled by state polls that showed pluralities of democrats voting that we thought approached those of 2008 and we didn't think it was possible. it was plus 7 democrat in 2008. we didn't think it was likely that obama would do that well. obviously overall the race is closer than it was, much closer than it was. but this is the last sweep of the exit polls that we have in hand. 25,000 person sample. those who identified as democrats 38, republic...

Base. the republicans similarly wept to the base. >> ultimately both played to their base. neither party addressed -- the big question, how are we going to create jobs hence there are still a lot of undecidessed. >> what do you think of the job numbers? >> the president's job approval which is 52 in rase mu son, it is 50-44 examine that's plus 6. it is about a 10-point margin shift. that's the key as to whether he gets re-elected. i don't care if it is the horse races if he is 50% he has to come down. it needs to be in the 45% range. look, the republican party needs to pace facts. the democrat...

In one poll is very narrow. women would unction that it's not making them better off. but he also has an extreme set of policies on their reproductive rights, on the things that are important to them to make sure that their children have another big success. >> i think americans are looking for a vision -- not just of leadership and where you take the country, but how you're going to actually get there. there's that sense that nothing is going to change. >> i think mitt romney has to sell forward results and he'll get there. biography is vulnerable. i think the president has invested a lot, al...

Coalitions locking into place for the nominees and widdling down narrower in terms of how much is up. >> you bring up the role of government, people answered politically. that's a presidential split, is it not? there it is. >> the oe obama and the romney policy. >> the country split down the middle. >> democrats versus americans. everybody will want to see the issue of the economy and republicans plus six. is that a big enough lead? >> usually around plus nine you start winning campaigns. plus 6 is terrific. who handles the economy goes back and forth and it's a predictor of the direction of t...

Obama to tossup. we have seen other changes elsewhere that might indicate a little move in the the southwest in the romney, toward romney. >> bret: what about your view of the west? >> one of the things that happens when you look at a 30-day average of polls is you have old stuff in there. keeping the states even closer than they really are. i don't think arizona is really, should be in the lean category right now. i also think oregon in the west is state that is a little tighter than i suspect. more of a tossup than arizona is. so as we see more polling come in. this map is probably going to ...