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Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary.

March 1, 2021 Last year, I debuted a series of posts using NFBC average auction values (AAV). It was a jolly good time, so I’m going to do it again this season. Once again, I’ll start by building a $14 offense. That’s right, 14 hitters, all just a buck. Isn’t that exciting?! I can only imagine the thrills that will be had choosing between players most fantasy owners have no desire to roster. But think of how amazing you $246 pitching staff would be! For whatever reason, auctions on the NFBC are not very popular. Over the entire month of February, we have AAV from just seven of them, ...

Pod It’s another 3-2 victory in favor of Pod! This was perhaps an even more meaningless win than the ERA upside battle, in which I also “won” 3-2. That’s because three of these five lads pitched fewer than 20 innings! Max Fried was a nice little sleeper heading into the season, with strikeout potential, decent enough control, and a strong ground ball rate. So he was certainly on the radar of mixed leaguers. However, he beat all projections thanks to a woman named Lady Luck. His BABIP plummeted from heavily inflated marks in previous seasons to just .268, he allowed a mid-single digi...

Pod In a decisive victor, Pod wins the ERA upside battle! HA. The pitchers here ranged from 41.2 to 81.1 innings, so not exactly a worthwhile sample size. And confirming my injury curse will never end, one of the names required Tommy John surgery before the season even began and failed to throw a single pitch. It was nice to see my biggest upside play, Kenta Maeda, was actually a winner. Not only that, but he obliterated all projections, so if my projection caused you to go the extra buck, you were a happy, happy fantasy owner. Not surprisingly, Steamer disliked Maeda moving to the AL, though...

Steamer *Not that the “Diff” column might look off because the HR – 600 AB columns were rounded for the table, but the Diff calculation was off the exact forecasts with fractions of a home run included. So technically, the finally tally was Pod with 6 “wins” and Steamer with 9 “wins”. A table like this should remind you that I will always take accountability for my lists based on my projections and xMetrics, along with any additional calls I made. Even if it makes me look bad, I’ll still share the results! That said, it’s obviously unfair to myself to consider the win tally ...